Stupid commuter trick #176,415....Enter a 60 mph carpool lane at 6 mph.

 In California, the leftmost lane of a freeway is often reserved
for motorcycles, busses and cars with passengers.

This is great if you ride, because it seldom slows down much.
Problem is that when you're travelling 50-60 mph, the lane on
your right may crawling and people still want to enter the carpool
lane. At this time of day, I usually pick what I think is a safe
distance behind a car, figuring he's pretty visible.

Today, some idiot tried to enter the lane one carspace
ahead of me. He cut off the car in front of me to the point
where the driver had to swerve around him. I saw some
this, slowed and moved left, but didn't panic stop, figuring
there was still plenty of room to get by.

Having just had one car swerve around him, rather than
stopping, the idiot driver continued pulling into the lane,
still at maybe 10 mph. At this point, I'd used up most of my
stopping distance and had no idea if traffic behind me
would be able to stop or not. I left the lane completely and
swerved around this idiot on the shoulder at maybe 40 mph,
got back into the lane with my shorts still more or less dry
and clean and offered a single fingered salute to his
driving prowess.

I think my biggest mistake was underestimating this guy's
idiocy. I've always tried to be prepared for this kind of
a stupid trick, but never expected anybody to continue
moving forward after the first near miss. In retrospect, I
now recall seeing a drunk do exactly that and I remember
I was equally surprised that time too.

For whatever it's worth as a cautionary tale. I hope I learned
a little from it and if anybody else does too, so much the
better.

 
There are a couple thoughts that come to mind:

Thought #1:

You might be familiar with how computers play a lot of games.  You build a
game tree.  At each level of the tree, assume your opponent will make the
least favorable move for you.  In some sense, you failed to assume the least
favorable choice your opponent could make.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha-beta_pruning

Thought #2:

I'm guilty of the same sort of complacency.  I wish I knew how or why it
happens (psychologically).  Sometimes I'll come upon a car on a
perpendicular road that is "creeping".  At some point I make the assumption
that he has seen me or will stop.  I've always been right so far.  But
sooner or later I'll come upon someone who surprises me in a bad way.

The game-theory-right thing to do is assume that he will pull out in front
of me, and to begin decelerating so as to stop before his position.  But I
rarely do this.  Don't know why.

Somehow you made the assumption that he would cease and desist after the
first near miss.

I make those kinds of assumptions, too, and I wish I knew why.

It is also noteworthy (as you mentioned) that stopping on a motorcycle has
its own set of risks from behind.

Datesfat

 wrote:


Game theory pretty much starts with the assumption
that you have an opponent who's actively trying to
do something nasty to you, right ? Call me sentimental,
but I don't always accept this premise when I'm piloting
a vehicle on the road in time of peace.

When a driver makes a mistake, personal observations
are as follows:

A good driver may try to take some evasive action or
will panic stop if there's no opportunity to evade.

A bad to mediocre driver will panic stop virtually all the
time, even if this is the most dangerous action they
could possible take.

A driver who's really falling down drunk or otherwise greatly
judgementally impaired may take a "damn the torpedoes,
full speed ahead" course of action and just keep on doing
his thing.

Fortunately, this third class of driver is relatively uncommon
so I tend to forget they exist. Stuff like this will occasionally
remind me.

Happy, safe riding to all.

 
The problem with always assuming that everyone is going to kill you,
is sometimes they don't. If I see a car up ahead waiting to turn left
in front of me, I can't just do panic-stop, because that would only
cause the guy behind me to squish me while pondering (along with the
left-turner), "why is this bike stopping for no reason?!" Also, it
would take a really long time to get anywhere, what with all the
sudden stops every few blocks.

A few false positives are better than one false negative, but it is
possible to "cry wolf" too often. So, you have to judge whether or not
left-turners, mergers, etc are actually going to turn into the
homicidal kind... that's harder.

 
There's a solution: buy a headlight modulator.

When I run into one of those "Does he see me?" situations I flip on my
modulator and let the flashing headlight alert the oncoming left
turner to my presence.

Of course there's always the chance that he'd already seen me and
wasn't planning to turn left right into my path, but I'd sooner not
take that chance.