A new year and the state of racing

 A good time to look back and forward regarding the big picture in
racing, with the sport in the greatest state of turmoil in at least 20
years and probably longer. During the last two decades there has been
relative stability:

  - GP has been driven by significant factory funding, in both
500/MotoGP and 250, and has stabilized around a three-class structure
including 125. Dorna has settled in at the helm of the new commercial
venture that has ultimately been successful through various changes -
the transition from 500 to MotoGP, the transition of support classes
from independent championships to rider (and team) development classes,
the transition from an American/Australian to a European rider base, the
departure of most of the big tobacco sponsorship. And after threatening
to depart in '91 Michelin utterly dominated on the tire front in
500/MotoGP, Dunlop the same in the support classes.

  - WSB was born and developed into a viable world championship, at
times threatening to challenge GP at the top of the heap. In the last
half decade it has gone through some major swings, having been reduced
significantly during the first years of MotoGP and been revealed as
little more than the Ducati Cup it always threatened to be, but has
seemed to find its level the last few years after the switch to 1000cc
fours for the Japanese OEMs. A level decidedly secondary to MotoGP, run
on the worst of racing's Big Four tire companies' product, the great
spec tire experiment.

  - After the death of formula one, the promotion of superbike, the
birth of supersport and the withdrawal of almost all OEM support in the
mid-late '80s, the AMA stabilized starting in 1990 around a profile of a
factory-dominated SB class supported by a factory-driven 600SS class,
and a high-salary group of factory riders no longer wanted by GP and
eventually WSB (including Australians). After a decade of slow progress
that structure has equally slowly degraded over the last ten years, but
in fits and starts, eventually ending up with four classes built almost
entirely around Japanese 600 and 1000 fours, and with SB heavily
impacted by what the OEMs were doing and not doing in WSB and MotoGP.

So in 2008 that picture suddenly changed, and here's where we are going
into 2009:

Grand Prix: The second year of 800s in MotoGP wasn't that much better
than the first, although the Japanese did close the gap to Ducati (well,
Stoner/Ducati, that is). But it became apparent that the 800s presented
more problems than Ducati getting it right and Yamaha and especially
Honda getting it wrong out of the box, they just aren't as interesting
to watch as the 990s. The oh-so-tiny adjustment to the tire rules  did
about as little as one would expect, but ultimately it came down to
Michelin's inability to match Bridgestone and some bizarre decisions on
what to bring and what to allow to be used at some races. Dorna had
solved their Rossi tire problem and eventually the Pedrosa problem, but
overall Suzuki and Kawasaki were on the best tires and Honda and Yamaha
weren't, which was still a problem in Dorna's eyes. Mezmorized by the
close racing in WSB, Dorna drove the move to spec tires in MotoGP, the
first step to limit technology in this previously no-limits class, and
then the talk turned to electronic rider aids.

Then the world economic collapse and now the first really big impact of
that, the departure of Kawasaki. It's the suddenness of that move and
the lack of forewarning that is so scary, and it also revealed what a
precarious position MotoGP is in, with absolute total reliance on the
OEMs for bikes, teams, riders, the level of financial commitment that
requires, and with no margin for rollback, now with only 17 bikes lining
up in '09. Maybe. Now everyone is talking about how to make the racing
cheaper, a rewind of the SB discussion, but here we're talking about
much bigger dollars and a class that is fundamentally resistant to that
notion - no limits, remember? Now, this is hardly a new notion, I think
everyone knew switching to four strokes would bring this baggage with
it, going back to theoretical discussions more than a decade ago. But
it's here now, in spades, and action needs to be immediate or GP could
actually be gone - could one have imagined that two years ago, when
MotoGP was cresting the wave? Welcome to the world of Ecclestone.

What's interesting is that the precursor of all this was already in
process in the 250 class. The support classes never made the transition
that the premier class did, because that was less vital and the money
simply wasn't there to do it in the same way. But it became obvious to
Dorna (and probably the MSMA) that the matter had to be attended to, so
the notion of a four stroke 600-4 replacement class was floated some
time ago. The first issue there was motors - can't be production-based
because that's FGSport's territory certified by the FIM, can't be
prototypes because that cost waaaay too much, and the notion of a spec
motor has all kinds of negative aspects for GP. The second  issue is
that the OEMs remaining in 250 had no place in this new class, which was
apparently mostly designed for the Japanese. The third issue is
tradition, the impact of which is seen in the absolute displacement cap
(unlike the production racing world's approach) and the notion that the
new bikes must be 250-like - small, light and not very powerful.

So now Dorna has floated a more specific definition of the new class,
and it walks a fine line - non-production chassis housing a motor that
may or may not be production-based. So has there been a settlement of
some kind with FGSport? Or are both sides busy hoarding lawyers, guns
and money for the war that is to come? At least as important to MotoGP's
(immediate?) future is the rest of it - spec electronics, an rpm cap, a
claiming rule, etc., all designed to meaningfully limit costs. So is
this foreshadowing of what we might see in MotoGP? Noyes suggested some
of this at Speed this week, but not the Big Kahuna - use of modified
1000cc production motors. What would be FGSport's reaction to that?

World Superbike: Suddenly the Phlegminis look flush, their stumbling and
bumbling for the better part of a decade has somehow not landed them in
the shit. And why? For whatever reason - spec tires, secondary attention
of the factories, 1000-4s, the peculiar rider mix - they have had close
racing when the new 800s didn't. The fundamentally cheaper racing
provided by superbikes meant they landed BMW and Aprilia this year and
MotoGP didn't, even though WSB hasn't pursued the dumb-down movement to
further control costs already being advocated by BSB, the AMA, the FIM
and now in particular DMG. Spec tires are all the rage, with effectively
no competitive tire situations remaining in bike racing in '09, and they
have been credited with bold leadership on that front. And now suddenly
  SB looks attractive to everyone in these yet-to-be-defined very lean
times, from the OEMs to Rossi. Mirroring the current state of affairs
perfectly is Ben Spies, who couldn't get the MotoGP ride he sought
because of a smelly passport and salary demands, wouldn't return to the
AMA because of problems with Suzuki and the extreme instability of DMG
leadership, so went where he didn't want to go and now has perhaps
landed in clover, it seems.

So it's all come up roses for WSB, even with the loss of Bayliss, who
closed out with an attention-grabbing third championship, then the talk
of a Bayliss-Rossi one-off clash, and his absence may actually make the
racing closer this year. The possible downsides? Well, that rider pool
still looks peculiar even with Spies, Rea, et al, and Bayliss is hardly
the only one who will be facing retirement in the next couple years.
They made a new beachhead in America last year but still haven't landed
in Japan again. It's not clear that the current rules governing the
fours/twins mix will be more successful than the previous ones, as those
used last year clearly were slanted toward twins (defining balance as
equal success for twins and fours, even though there will be only one
OEM running a twin in '09 and six running fours), suggesting the same
old Ducati favoritism. The Japanese factory interest measured in money
may stall or reverse, given their shrinking racing budgets. While SB
racing makes more fundamental sense in leaner times if not overall, the
Phlegminis have always shown an ability to somehow screw things up.

AMA: When it comes to making a mess of things, the new DMG leadership
simply has no peer. They have officially been in charge of the future
for ten months now and no doubt unofficially for longer, yet what their
series will look like this year remains incredibly undefined. No need to
go through the whole litany of failure to perform, but here is a list of
some of what we had/would have had and will have (maybe), good and bad:

  - SStock was gone either way, so we trade a somewhat dumbed-down SB,
FX and SSport for a more dumbed-down SB, a considerably more dumbed-down
FX that allows some big twins, and a SSport that is rider age- and
experience-limited and also includes those big twins. Under the old
regime one of the complaints was that there wasn't a clear premier
class, but SB did in fact hold that status; the new regime has made ASB
and DSB of equal standing for all practical purposes. The ultimate
purpose obviously being to eventually make DSB the premier class, which
is where they started last spring.

  - all classes are laden with spec requirements, so one-off racing
parts are now effectively banned. Spec tires are provided in all classes
by Dunlop. Control ECUs are strongly hinted at in the near future. So
costs are to be controlled (sort of, for some) and close racing intended
(maybe).

  - We had total Spies/Mladin/Yosh/Suzuki dominance in SB the last three
years and won't have that this year, but that's because Spies is gone,
Mladin is almost certainly gone, the factory Suzuki effort is almost
certainly gone, Yosh may be gone (after 30 consecutive years of SB
racing). What we may have instead is total Bostrom/Hayes/Yamaha
dominance in what's considered to be SB in '09, with American Honda
gone, Hodgson and Duhamel likely gone, Kawasaki likely gone, Hacking and
the Haydens very possibly gone. So DMG has perahps traded SB dominance
by quite likely the best two riders in the world outside of WSB and
MotoGP in 06-08 for dominance by two of the best riders in AMA support
classes in 06-08.

  - DSB looks something like a SSp-FX mix right now, with the best teams
apparently the factory support teams at Erion, Graves, Attack (maybe)
and EMGO/M4. There have been recent announcements by KWS/Millennium and
Richie Morris about running Aprilia and Buell literbikes, but these are
smaller teams with Mike Barnes and Ben Thompson (who?) as riders. ASB
apparently loses three of the four factory teams from '08 SB, retains
Corona and Jordan, adds Pegram and probably EMGO/M4. None of the '08
factory SB riders have been confirmed to be riding in '09; we know Spies
is headed to WSB, Bostrom to farming in South America, Tom Hayden has a
Suzuki contract but no ride, Hodgson may be assigned to Corona for the
2nd year of his contract. So it seems the riders and the teams have been
dumbed down as much as the bikes. And I haven't heard anything about
anyone racing in SSport.

The list of what hasn't been defined by DMG is a long one, including the
bikes eligible for ASB, the bikes actually homologated for all classes,
the parts homologated, the details of contingency programs, the
particulars of race weekends, the points system. The year ended with two
minor but telling press releases from DMG, the first being a change to
aftermarket pistons, which is interesting in that this was an issue with
Suzuki and perhaps the other balking Japanese OEMs, and it was a very
major issue with Ducati in BSB last year. Given that the year-long fight
with Suzuki, Honda and Kawasaki is all but over, was this just yet
another concession to Ducati? The second was a senior staff
announcement, about guys we've know about since the beginning or soon
after - is this all they have to say?

Backing off to see the bigger picture, DMG has mostly pushed out the
factories before they might have backed out on their own because of the
economic problems. The classes have been redefined to control the
equipment, intended to make the racing cheaper and closer, both of which
are highly debatable in reality. The preliminary schedule has all the
old venues plus two new ones, but many are uncertain in the longer run,
given DMG's reluctance to support the world championships at Laguna and
Miller, given the reduced OEM sponsorship dollars, given the questions
about interest in this "national club racing" championship. Their
efforts to "Europeanize and Americanize" the series is obvious and
moving forward, but it remains highly questionable of what value this
will be. At minimum the sound of the bikes from the side of the track
will be more varied. The economy will obviously hurt the series, but it
also gives DMG massive cover, an excuse for shorter-term failure, which
they sorely needed.


So that's where we are, and it's not a pretty picture. On the world
level, WSB will survive and perhaps with minimal impact of the hard
times ahead, mostly because they had ratcheted back already and weren't
massively OEM-reliant. GP simply has to redefine itself, and may well be
unable to do that successfully without use of production parts. It's
almost impossible to guess what that series will look like in five
years, if it exists at all. In the US we had already been steeled for
bad days ahead when the economic collapse hit, by the abysmal
performance of the new owners all year. Now almost anything will look
better than nothing, and one can at least say DMG have seemed like the
folks prepared to deliver something slightly better than nothing.

Happy New Year, guys...

 I'm not a big fan of fairness in editorial journalism. I'd rather people
expressed a clearly defined opinion from a clearly defined standpoint.
But Mark, you just can't resist colouring what is a good summary with
the inevitable jibes. Does it actually help to call them "Phlegminis"?
What does that add, except to clearly define where you stand and your
opinion?

Meanwhile, BSB and the UK scene continues to lurch around in its own
particular brand of madness that mirrors some of the madness in the rest
of the racing world. Like WSB and AMA they've been trying to find the
right set of rules that would produce good racing and if not
deliberately favour one brand at least leave all the major players
equally upset. A key figure in all this is Jonathan Palmer and first his
purchase of a group of the major circuits from the Foulston family and
then taking over ownership of the whole series. This has now led him to
be able to go toe to toe with FGSport and refuse their demands for more
money for perhaps the best WSB meeting of the year at Brands Hatch.

As in WSB, Ducati have had a good run in BSB with favourable rules that
have allowed a couple of the best, most organised teams to dominate. But
hidden behind this was a cost base and sponsorship base that was barely
supportable. Although there was sponsorship money from outside the
sport, it was limited and insufficient to cope with the racing costs of
the whole paddock. So the first attempt was to make homologation more
difficult. The next was to try to limit motor development by forcing
more stock components. Ducati didn't like it but in the end they worked
round it. To stay competitive, Suzuki and Yamaha pushed their motors too
far and now just as in the latest AMA development, they all want
aftermarket pistons. The irony of course was that it was Yamaha and
Suzuki who were complaining about costs and had previously pushed for
the lower WSS style engine spec. There seems to have been a bout of the
organisers throwing their hands in the air at the back and forth and
just going, enough, just use WSB rules and that'll be an end of it.

GSE have been a favoured Ducati team almost since they started both in
WSB and BSB. It's a long time since Colin Wright was running Kawasakis.
We've all become used to them winning, or being just behind Ducati Corse
and giving Bayliss, Hodgson, Toseland a leg up and providing competitive
bikes to Walker, Lavilla, Camier, Haslam and others. There was a
pr/story mid summer just as the WSB rules announcement came that they'd
ordered 20 or so WSB spec engines from Ducati Corse for 2009. What
nobody saw coming was Yamaha getting serious about the '09 R1 with more
support for Yamaha Italia, signing Ben Spies, Yamaha USA going SB racing
properly. They must have got frustrated by Rob McElnea and had been
talking to GSE for some time trying to get them to switch. So now
they've got Camier and a resurgent Ellison on Yamaha and presumably tech
sharing with Japan, Italy and America. And Colin has managed to retain
Airwaves sponsorship.

Then we get Suzuki. No sooner does honorary Brit (English wife, house
next to Mallory Park) Guintoli sign for Crescent-Rizla Suzuki than the
rumours start that Rizla are pulling out. Next, hopeless token-Japanese
champ Watanabe moves to Relentless Suzuki. Jack Valentine had turned the
team round, Sykes had gone to WSB, they'd got a fast ex-MotoGP rider to
replace him and then what? If Rizla go will that team go as well?

The last best hope for Ducati was then the JHP-NW200 team. There was
almost a deal to bring Euro Superstock champ Brendan Roberts, Ducati
Corse bikes and money to the team if NW200 and Rutter stepped down. In
the end Roberts went to WSB, Rutter and NW200 money went to Rob McElnea
and the team folded. So that's it. After years of winning, Ducati are
out of BSB.

Even though Shakey dominated the early season, last year was epic. The
transition to spec Pirellis helped the racing and didn't affect the lap
times or screw up. A whole bunch of riders moved to WSB and WSS, the
money is drying up, teams are folding and suddenly '09 looks a bit thin.
Hopefully we'll still have at least HM Plant Honda, GSE Yamaha,
Crescent/Relentless Suzuki fighting it out up front. But there might
only be 10 bikes behind them and perhaps a long way behind them.

So where are we for '09?
- MotoGP will be thin, worth watching on TV, but probably not worth
paying to see live.
- 250/125 will produce some epic battles. Simoncelli-Bautista-Barbera
will still be worth watching. Even if KTM are gone from 250.
- WSB/WSS looks like the main event. Big grids, new bikes, new riders
what's not to like?
- BSB will survive, some of the racing will be good. Tickets, although a
bit expensive will be within reach and the crowds will turn up. A good
ride out, 28 quid per head and probably free camping can be done. Paying
the big money for the MotoGP and WSB events during bad times, maybe
we'll give it a miss this year.
- AMA? Who knows, I certainly don't.




Julian Bond  E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com  M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster:          http://www.ecademy.com/       T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog:    http://www.voidstar.com/      skype:julian.bond?chat
                             Subscribe Now

 Julian Bond wrote:

Ah, yeah, that's kind of the point. You will note that the two times I
used that it was in this context: "the Phlegminis look flush, their
stumbling and bumbling for the better part of a decade has somehow not
landed them in the shit" and "the Phlegminis have always shown an
ability to somehow screw things up". So it was entirely consistent
with what was being expressed, and on all other occasions I used
FGSport without any overtones. I just don't see the problem - maybe
one has to be European to fully sense the offense...


Intended to mention that one with the other WSB downsides - big loss.


I find it interesting that Ducati complained loudest about stock
pistons, but in the end they thrived anyway (a bit more than simoply
"worked round it", right?) while Suzuki and Yamaha had to push beyond
the limits to keep up. So was the problem an imbalance in the motors,
pistons (and rods?) a weak link, or is it back to the old twins-fours
balance?


Whaaaaa? How is it Yamaha USA is "going SB racing properly"? There's
nothing "proper" about the DMG SB class, and other than the dumbed-
down bikes it looks like the same old Yamaha team, the same outfit
that ran Motor Italia bikes last year and did SS only in 03-06. Given
the "kit bike no unobtainium" approach of DMG, how will Yammie here
contribute anything to SBs run under WSB rules in Europe?


So how did that happen? Is there simply no team that wants to run
Ducatis? Can no team afford them? Has Duacti lost interest in BSB
after dominating the series for a decade, or can they no longer afford
it? I still don't follow...


Are you sure about that? I know it's tough to compare lap times year
to year in BSB because of weather and all the rider/team changes, but
what makes you say there was no degrading of speed?


Just because the two slowest bikes of '08 are gone (maybe)? I went to
two GPs in '08, Laguina and Indy, and I would never say it's not worth
seeing live, I suspect both of those races were far superior live
(with the right viewing spot) than on TV.


Equally questionable. The front is getting very thin, the pack farther
behind, and how many total bikes will there be? And of course Aprilia
gets to decide who wins and who doesn't. A bad deal all around - bring
on the 600s, even if typically Spain is being given a year's head
start...


I hope the new blood adds something, because the rest looks sooo 1998
- Haga, Checa, Corser, Biaggi - even with Bayliss gone. But if a year
on the circuit is what Kiyonari needed and Spies and Rea and the other
new blood can bring it, then it's going to be good. Especially so if
BMW and Aprilia are competitive and Nakano makes the transition
quickly. But as good as it looks, I don't yet concede that it will or
even can top MotoGP, if there isn't any further loss of teams there
and the spec tires do their job. Even if they end up losing Melandri
and Hopkins (think about what people thought of them only a year ago)
it's still the best talent concentration in racing. By far.


So what's the big money? A three-day Indy pass last year cost only
$75, and I think tickets at Laguna are going down. The cost is travel
and lodging over here, especially the pimps running motels in
Monterey...


The problem is, apparently neither do they...

 
I think this was gamesmanship. Ducati claimed they couldn't make
competitive power with a 3 ring stock piston. What they were hoping for
was actually a different shape piston for greater efficiency at high
revs. They came out of the box with a fully sorted race bike in a good
team with a good motivated rider. So the start of the year Shakey
appeared to dominate. But then everyone else had a series of problems.
It took a while for Haslam to get sorted on the Honda after years on
Ducatis. Sykes had some crazy unfortunate accidents. Crutchlow had some
stupid accidents. Camier was getting used to the twins and getting his
confidence back after being badly beat up the previous year. While all
that was going on, there really wasn't a lot of difference in
performance. Different strengths but not significantly different lap
times. Suzuki and Yamaha tried to find an edge by chasing revs and they
pushed the envelope a little too far. I think there were 4 (3 Yam, 1
Suzuki) blow ups in races and that led them to push to open the rules up
again. When Shakey had a run of 1sts and 2nds, the organisers tried to
rein him in by imposing extra weight, we had more gamesmanship and GSE
ended up with bikes where they just ran a little extra fuel to make the
weight.


1) GSE are made an offer they can't refuse by Yamaha.
2) The other Ducati team is Michael Rutter sponsored by NorthWest 200.
Plus John Laverty on a Superstock spec 1098R, denied Superstock because
BSB homologation prevented it, so running in the Privateers cup in BSB
(and winning it.)
3) Ducati Corse Put a deal together for factory bikes (from GSE?);
Brendan Roberts (Euro Superstock Champ, Ducati Corse Junior); Rutter as
manager not rider. NW200 aren't really interested because there's no
road race element.
4) Brendan Roberts gets a ride in WSB. Rutter doesn't want to retire and
wants to do the road races. NW200 decide there's no mileage in
sponsoring somebody who's not actually oing to race in the NW200. The
whole deal collapses. John Hackett (tuner and team technician) is left
with no bikes, no riders and no sponsor.
5) Rob McElnea has some Yamaha support but no sponsor and no rider. So
Rutter and NW200 jump ship to him.
6) Ducati UK issue a press release regretting leaving BSB after so many
years and promise to come back eventually.


I haven't gone through and checked all the lap times. The few I did
check suggests no more than 0.5s difference. There were no stories of
huge moans from anyone. The one loser was probably Honda who had been
running Michelins and occasionally used that as an edge when they had a
better tyre than Dunlop.


Aprilia gets to decide who can't win. They don't decide who wins.
Simoncelli-Bautista-Barbera, Luthi, Debon (is he racing next year?),
Pasini will all have bikes that can win. The guys in 10th and back
haven't got a hope.

Is there anything that says Spain is the only place that can run a
national championship to MotoGP2 rules a year early? Maybe DMG should
introduce another FX replacement. Oh. Wait.


It's not the best of the best. I don't think anyone tries to claim it
is. What it is though is great racing with lots of stories to follow.


The UK GP at Donington has got more and more expensive. Race day ticket
is over 60 quid now. 3 day ticket with camping for two and all the crap
that goes with it, you can spend 300 quid, easy. That's too much in a
recession.

--
Julian Bond  E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com  M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster:          http://www.ecademy.com/       T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog:    http://www.voidstar.com/      skype:julian.bond?chat
              Money Is The Schrodinger's Cat of Economics

 allegedly wrote:


Not really.  It just turns an entirely readable and sometimes, perhaps,
even intelligent posting into the childish scribblings of a rambling
lunatic.

When I come across these play on words, or name calling, I'm almost
certain to press the "Next Unread" key.