Okay, thrashing through the data a bit, the GOAT-ETMCSV (the Greatest Of
All Time - Early-To-Mid Current Season Version), Lorenzo, was doing
42.8s/42.9s in the morning, which slipped-slided away to low-mid 43s in
the heat of the afternoon. That's your pace. Pedrosa worked his way down
to mid and then low 43s in the morning, getting to 43.1s/43.2s, and in
the PM that became mid-high 43s. Stoner was quicker in the AM, doing
very low 43s and popping the occasional 42.9, and actually ran some
sustained laps for a change. Not so in the Q, where his best was a 43.5
before he went for his one pole try.
Da Poon did his 42.9 in his first run in the morning then fiddled about
a half-second or more slower until he did another 42.9 at the end; in
the Q he started with low 43s, the dropped to mid-high 42s with some
regularity. I'm not clear if he went to the soft tires early, chasing
the front row and maybe pole, getting his name on the top of the list
early (which has always been his way), but if he wasn't he was the
fastest guy on the track, period. But none of those runs were more than
three hot laps, so...
Spies did a 20-lap race-length run at the start of the Q, with best laps
at 43.8/43.9, so we know he can do that in the race. He only did two Q
runs, the first a 43.1 and the second ended with his 42.7. In the
morning he struggled to get to his one 43.9, mostly mid-low 44s, so he
definitely found something between sessions, maybe on the bike, maybe in
his head. Dovi was solidly mid-low 43s in the Q on race setup, and just
a hair faster in the cooler FP2, with a best of 43.0, so he has better
race pace at this point.
Then we're into hurly-burly, led by Capirossi on 3rd-row pole, who did a
43.8 early in the Q but it's not clear what he was onto after that; in
the morning he was 8th but not consistent at all, high 43s at best.
Simoncelli had done one 43.9 before he want for his last Q run, but in
the morning he was 7th and was able to do low-mid 43s with some
regularity. Bautista was low 44s on race setup in the Q, and got to high
43s in the AM, which is really the same thing in these conditions.
Edwards was also 44s in the Q, and only found mid-43s at the end of FP2.
Hayden did a couple 43.9s at the start of the Q, and mis-timed his soft
one at the end, doing 7 laps on it to end the session. In the morning
his best pace was 43.5s/43.6s. Espargaro was mostly 44s, did one 43.9
when he did his 42.9 at the end of the morning session, so his 5th-quick
was misleading; it doesn't look like he got out of the 44s on race setup
in the Q.
So it looks to me like that top four are probably the race. Lorenzo has
to be the favorite, Stoner the most-likely challenger, Pedrosa again
goes in a race-win long-shot, and Randy is the wildcard. Evem assuming
they all finish, Dovi looks like a top five to me. If Spies can find
something he could be in that fight, but I don't see a podium without
some carnage first. And then comes that mess behind, and so much will be
decided in the first corner. I really think Hayden and Simoncelli are
the best of the bunch, but they have to survive the first corner and
then hope to come out of it close to the front of that pack in order to
maybe challenge for a top five.
I never much cared for this track, it seems like the most
computer-designed of all of them to me, not really flowing, not very
technical, just a well-executed string of all the obligatory stuff with
a very long straight. Throw in the heat this weekend and it's almost
like a wet race or something. And a final oddity - the top trap speed in
the Q was none other than Alvaro Bautista on the Suzuki, followed by
Pedrosa, Hayden, Melandri and Dovi. Stoner was 8th, Lorenzo 11th, Spies
14th. And trap speed can really help here, just watch the '07 race
again, although they aren't that far apart - Spies was just 7.3kph down
on Pedrosa.
XML Sitemap