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Posted by Mark N on November 22, 2007, 9:56 am
From an interview in CN after the last race:
CN: He's [Rossi] going to be announced on Bridgestone next year. That
leaves you, Jorge Lorenzo and James Toseland on Michelins. Are you happy
with that?
CE: Kind of, yeah. I can't run Valentino's tires. And to get him off of
Michelin to where me and James and Nicky and Pedrosa, Lorenzo, we can
kind of develop what we want. Nobody can run Valentino's tires.
CN: Why is that?
CE: The guy grew up on minimotos. Minimotos and 125s and just stiff and
hard stuff - like riding a piece of concrete. And he's just so
accustomed to that that he's carried that through. I started on
superbikes and was on superbikes for 10 years or something. I want
something with a bit of play, a bit of cush... information. I try to
ride his tires and I'm like a second and a half slower than on what I
normally use. I just can't get any traction on the ground. But you know,
Pedrosa can't use his tires. Pedrosa doesn't use it, Nicky doesn't use
it. Nobody uses his stuff. So, yeah, is it good for us? I think, yeah. I
think it's good he's going to Bridgestone, simply for the development of
Bridgestone.
CN: Hayden's response was that Bridgestone has another good guy
developing their tires.
CE: Obviously, we know the circumstances about Bridgestone and how
Valentino got Bridgestones. I don't think Bridgestone is going to be
overly concerned in developing the number-one best Yamaha tire on the
planet. I think it's going to be, "Here's the Suzuki, the Kawi, the
Ducati tire; take your pick of which one works on your bike." At the end
of the day, Stoner and Bridgestone and Ducati, they're going to lead
most of the development.
Colin also talked a lot about the problems with the '07 Yamaha, leading
one to the conclusion that they have been in one of their reduced
efforts periods, the same thing Roberts and Lawson and Rainey complained
about in the past. And he also talked about going to Tech3 with an open
mind and ready to try different things. Given the Sepang test times,
breaking the lap record on race tires, things seem to be working pretty
well for him at this point, and he felt Michelin "have made a big jump,
especially here. They are working and it's good".
And it's okay for Toseland, having satisfied himself that he can race
with these guys, although maybe not quite so good for Lorenzo, who's
still trying to adjust, oddly saying, "I'm concentrating on changing my
riding style to brake later and slow my midcorner speed. I'm still too
fast and rising the bike too much like a 250."
CN also goes into The Rossi Threat to Yemakeh, ready to retire or jump
to Ducati or something after 2009 if they can't deliver a bike that can
deliver him back to the front. And apparently similar attitude from
Pedrosa, on whom CN says, "And Hayden's teammate Dani Pedrosa didn't
even show in Malaysia and says he won't until vast improvements are
made" [in the 2008 machine]. Apparently HRC also said Hayden could skip
this test as well, but his comment is, "After the season I had, the last
thinhg I deserved were a few extra days of vacation. I would have felt
guilty to stay at home and not do some work." I guess it's a question of
sense of entitlement and leverage with your employer.
Already shaping up to be an interesting offseason...
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Posted by pablo on November 24, 2007, 9:13 pm
> i have a hard time believing bridgestone, given their <ahem>
> reluctance to take on rossi, will make big efforts to make tires
> specifically to his liking.
I think Rossi's gamble is simply that he will be better than Stoner on
absolutely equal tire terms. We shall all see whether that gamble was smart
or foolish pretty quickly. Bridgstone may not even want or need to pick a
favorite for a while.
Even the Japanese keiretsu thing is confusing: Ducati, a non-Japanese
manufacturer, was the one that gave Bridgestone the title and the reputation
for superiority. Will Bridgestone honor that partnership, or will they align
themselves closer with Japanese vendors as those move closer?
It depends on many things.
> ... rossi
> and burgess ....
Dominance like that never lasts for that long in MotoGP, other than Agostini
and MV Augusta. Champions get older and more conservative. Younger
contenders hungrier and willing to take risks. The history of that is as old
as the sport, and there's not reason why Rossi would be above it. Awesome
career, genius coming through the ranks... but past trends don't run on
iertia for longer than a few races in MotoGP unless people stay very hungry.
Several things indicate Rossi is no longer as hungry and committed as he
was. in my opinion.
....p
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Posted by Mark N on November 24, 2007, 10:59 pm
pablo wrote:
>
>> i have a hard time believing bridgestone, given their <ahem>
>> reluctance to take on rossi, will make big efforts to make tires
>> specifically to his liking.
> I think Rossi's gamble is simply that he will be better than Stoner on
> absolutely equal tire terms.
No such thing. Riders have different preferences, and the different
machines require different tires for optimal performance. That's the
absurdity in this GP spec tire business - someone would inevitably be
favored (and that decision would likely be made by the tire manufacturer
and Dorna behind closed doors). Edwards point seemed to be that Rossi
directing the development of the Michelins for the last five years or so
put the other Michelin runners at something of a disadvantage, because
his preferences are different than theirs. Now he's wishing that fate on
the Bridgestone opposition.
We shall all see whether that gamble was smart
> or foolish pretty quickly. Bridgstone may not even want or need to pick a
> favorite for a while.
I really don't think we know the whole story on this business, not even
close. There were reports that Bridgestone pretty much had cut a deal
with Dorna to do the spec tire thing, and at the same time they were
saying they wouldn't/couldn't take on Rossi and Pedrosa. Now given that
they had not only Stoner/Melandri/Ducati Corse and Hopkins/West/Kawasaki
and Vermeulen/Capirossi/Suzuki, but also Elias/Guintoli/D'Antin and
Nakano/deAngelis/Gresini, you have to wonder about that - who would give
a shit about D'Antin and Gresini if you could have the two biggest names
in the sport on factory Hondas and Yamahas?
Clearly a lot of very private discussions went on behind closed doors.
> Even the Japanese keiretsu thing is confusing: Ducati, a non-Japanese
> manufacturer, was the one that gave Bridgestone the title and the reputation
> for superiority. Will Bridgestone honor that partnership, or will they align
> themselves closer with Japanese vendors as those move closer?
>
> It depends on many things.
I think it's really hard to say what Bridgestone's thinking is. The
Ducati deal was struck, I believe, because in 2004 Ducati saw Tamada win
a couple races when the 'Stones were very right, and they also saw that
it was going to be very tough to beat Honda and Yamaha in a straight
fight on Michelins. So in '05 and '06 they got what they were looking
for, a few wins when the Bridgestones were better. This year they go a
lot more than that, in part because they had the better 800 for the
right rider, and in part because Bridgestone was better more often than
not.
Suzuki and Kawasaki have been there because Michelin wouldn't have them,
and because Dunlops are even worse. But they have been no prize, bikes
unlikely to win in the dry anyway (neither has done so in MotoGP). But
they're now closer than they ever have been.
So does Bridgestone keep their alliances out of loyalty, or do they like
everyone knowing that winning on their side is because of the tires and
not the bikes or riders, which is part of what Michelin has gotten from
their historical superiority. Or do they just want to maintain the
Michelin challenge, and know that loss of the Yamaha and Honda factory
teams would likely mean Michelin would bail on the whole deal?
>> ... rossi
>> and burgess ....
>
> Dominance like that never lasts for that long in MotoGP, other than Agostini
> and MV Augusta. Champions get older and more conservative. Younger
> contenders hungrier and willing to take risks. The history of that is as old
> as the sport, and there's not reason why Rossi would be above it. Awesome
> career, genius coming through the ranks... but past trends don't run on
> iertia for longer than a few races in MotoGP unless people stay very hungry.
> Several things indicate Rossi is no longer as hungry and committed as he
> was. in my opinion.
And he also doesn't have the best bike anymore, and he doesn't have the
best tires anymore, and his rivals don't walk into the arena already
beaten, and the lustre of invincibility is gone, as is the confidence
that went with it. The king wears no clothes. Dorna took a great rider
and manufactured a great champion out of him, but eventually chinks
appear in the armor. Maybe he comes back, maybe he doesn't, but it will
never again be 03-04. Of course that won't stop Dorna from trying their
best to manufacture their heroes for their loyal fans...
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Posted by Julian Bond on November 25, 2007, 6:14 am
How does the 40 tyre rule play out? Do we get to see more qualifying
tyres used in final practice?
And how many tyres did the factories bring per bike before there was a
limit? Is it actually working out more expensive for them now?
There's also the new rules about tyre testing at unfamiliar circuits
that should reduce the need to take so many gambles on Thursday night.
I wish they'd eased off on the fuel restriction as well. Just as we saw
races skewed by the tyre rules, we also saw races skewed by the fuel
limit.
--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: http://www.ecademy.com/ T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: http://www.voidstar.com/ skype:julian.bond?chat
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Posted by Julian Bond on November 25, 2007, 6:33 am
wamanning@email.com Sat, 24 Nov 2007 19:16:09
>here's my prediction: rossi's put himself in a tough spot. i'll go
>out on a limb and say he'll never again be motogp world champion.
I get the feeling that several races last year were skewed by the 32
tyre limit. Now that all the posturing and threats have played out into
a 40 tyre choice on Thursday night, that may have been enough for Rossi
to be competitive for the title on Michelins combined with a new R&D
push. But the musical chairs ended up with Rossi on Bridgestone. Combine
that with Rossi missing tests and it may well take till mid season for
Bridgestone to come up with a tyre that he likes. Add a Yamaha engine
that isn't fast enough or breaks and it's hard to see him able to match
Stoner next year over the whole season. If you think that Stoner at 22
is a match for Rossi at 28, then it still feels like
Stoner+Ducati+Bridgestone can trump Rossi+Yamaha+Bridgestone.
My take as of Nov '07
- Rossi is screwed. The best he can hope for in '08 is 2nd
- Repsol Honda are screwed. It'll take till mid '08 for the new bike to
be competitive
- Melandri is screwed. He won't be able to get his head round riding a
motocross bike.
- Lorenzo is screwed. Stuck on his own in a garage with no friends and
with Edwards+Toseland ganging up on him. But then as a rookie nobody is
expecting wins.
- Hopkins, Vermeulen, Capirossi will be fast. Just not fast enough.
- Toseland, Lorenzo, Dovizioso, De Angelis is going to be a real needle
match with a lot of elbows, pushing and shoving. There's a lot of pride
at stake here.
- The rest will be only a fraction off the pace and just like this year,
have a bad day and you end up 13th.
Which leaves Stoner with the championship to lose. Barring bad luck
catching up with him, it's hard to see anything but a continuation of
this year's run.
Put that another way. Stoner, Rossi, Dani P are the only riders I can
imagine winning the championship. But by 2/3 of the season, I think
Stoner will be out front with the other two chasing him down. Again.
--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: http://www.ecademy.com/ T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: http://www.voidstar.com/ skype:julian.bond?chat
Add Butter And Vanilla
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