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Posted by Champ on March 28, 2008, 11:56 am
The suprises of Qatar continue - 3 Yamahas fastest, only Stoner able
to get anything out of the Ducati, rookies showing well throughout.
Lorenzo's looking good so far - his fastest lap was certainly not a
flash in the pan, and he looks like he can run 1:40s comfortably (12
in total). Rossi may be able to do the same, but only produced three
laps in the 1:40s. Edwards is practising well as usual, but I'm still
waiting (after how many years?) for him to race at the same pace.
The two works Hondas are looking similar to each other, their
'comfortable' speed in the 1:41s. Stoner had a crash in the
afternoon, and went no faster than the morning. He may well find
something extra tomorrow, but he only finished 5th at Jerez last year,
so maybe it's just not the circuit for him and the Ducati package.
Toseland also slid off in the afternoon; he's still improving, but 8th
is perhaps a bit closer to his expected pace than his showing in
practice at Qatar.
I guess Mark will be along with standard deviation and moving averages
shortly :-)
--
Champ
neal at champ dot org dot uk
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Posted by Mark N on March 28, 2008, 3:00 pm
Champ wrote:
> The suprises of Qatar continue - 3 Yamahas fastest, only Stoner able
> to get anything out of the Ducati, rookies showing well throughout.
>
> Lorenzo's looking good so far - his fastest lap was certainly not a
> flash in the pan, and he looks like he can run 1:40s comfortably (12
> in total). =A0Rossi may be able to do the same, but only produced three
> laps in the 1:40s. =A0Edwards is practising well as usual, but I'm still
> waiting (after how many years?) for him to race at the same pace.
>
> The two works Hondas are looking similar to each other, their
> 'comfortable' speed in the 1:41s. =A0Stoner had a crash in the
> afternoon, and went no faster than the morning. =A0He may well find
> something extra tomorrow, but he only finished 5th at Jerez last year,
> so maybe it's just not the circuit for him and the Ducati package.
> Toseland also slid off in the afternoon; he's still improving, but 8th
> is perhaps a bit closer to his expected pace than his showing in
> practice at Qatar.
Can't even talk about what's going on without mentioning tires (but
which you managed to do anyway, btw) - clearly a Michelin weekend
again. The Yamahas continue to performe well, and the factory bikes
better than the lease bikes, with Toseland probably a bit off since
he's never raced here before (although he has tested here, which is
why he's at least in the game). Lorenzo's steady mid-40s definitely
has him a leg up on the occasional high 40s of Rossi, Edwards, Hayden,
Pedrosa and Stoner - Dovizioso's 40.91 was the only other one today.
So what it looks like again is Michelin over Bridgestone, Yamaha over
Honda, factory team bikes better than lease bikes, but with Stoner a
bit slower than last time. What that means is it's a reasonable shot
that Lorenzo will get pole again and even the race win.
I don't find it all that fascinating that the other Ducatis are
slower, I really wouldn't expect anything at all from the D'Antin boys
on a Michelin track - I don't think that much of the riders and Ducati
doesn't usually support lease teams as much as Honda or Yamaha (they
only did last year because they had to with the switch to 800s).
Melandri's ongoing struggles are a very interesting case, but at this
point hardly news. I find it more interesting that Kawasaki is
struggling so much, I wouldn't have predicted that - Hopkins 14th in
the 2nd session and West 17th. Seems like something is wrong with that
bike, although things will definitely improve when the get to a
Bridgestone track - if those are even out there now...
> I guess Mark will be along with standard deviation and moving averages
> shortly :-)
Right, like I'd even bother at this point...
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Posted by Champ on March 28, 2008, 3:17 pm
On Fri, 28 Mar 2008 12:00:22 -0700 (PDT), Mark N
>Can't even talk about what's going on without mentioning tires (but
>which you managed to do anyway, btw) - clearly a Michelin weekend
>again.
Much like Qatar - I have a theory that it was only Stoner and Rossi
who could make the Bridgestones work at that track, and they seem to
be doing the same here.
>The Yamahas continue to performe well, and the factory bikes
>better than the lease bikes, with Toseland probably a bit off since
>he's never raced here before (although he has tested here, which is
>why he's at least in the game).
Also, caught a bit of the Eurosport coverage when I just got in from
work, and apparently Toseland has a case of 'man-flu'. Dunno how
serious, but obviously the Brit commentators were talking it up.
>Lorenzo's steady mid-40s definitely
>has him a leg up on the occasional high 40s of Rossi, Edwards, Hayden,
>Pedrosa and Stoner - Dovizioso's 40.91 was the only other one today.
>So what it looks like again is Michelin over Bridgestone, Yamaha over
>Honda, factory team bikes better than lease bikes, but with Stoner a
>bit slower than last time. What that means is it's a reasonable shot
>that Lorenzo will get pole again and even the race win.
Well, tomorrow's a whole new day, but Lorenzo was the guy who really
found something between morning and afternoon - most in the top ten
found around half a second, but Lorenzo found a whole second.
>I find it more interesting that Kawasaki is
>struggling so much, I wouldn't have predicted that - Hopkins 14th in
>the 2nd session and West 17th. Seems like something is wrong with that
>bike, although things will definitely improve when the get to a
>Bridgestone track - if those are even out there now...
I agree, and as a fan of all things green I'm a little disappointed.
The TV showed a lap of West, and the bike was moving around a *lot*,
so the TC looks less than optimum. Mind you, shots of Pedrosa all
showed the rear of that bike snapping out too. It may be that as TC
systems get more sophisticated, they'll allow much the tyres to spin a
bit more than we've previously seen.
>> I guess Mark will be along with standard deviation and moving averages
>> shortly :-)
>
>Right, like I'd even bother at this point...
Hey, c'mon, indulge me :-)
--
Champ
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Posted by Mark N on March 28, 2008, 4:28 pm
Champ wrote:
> Mark N wrote:
> >Can't even talk about what's going on without mentioning tires (but
> >which you managed to do anyway, btw) - clearly a Michelin weekend
> >again.
>
> Much like Qatar - I have a theory that it was only Stoner and Rossi
> who could make the Bridgestones work at that track, and they seem to
> be doing the same here.
Maybe just a matter of semantics, but my guess is that it's more like
Rossi-Yamaha and Stoner-Ducati are easily the best rider-bike
combinations on Bridgestones right now. Meaning the tires aren't
necessarily working for them, rather they are at least able to run
very close to the front even when they don't work as well as the
Michelins. If Lorenzo is faster than Rossi you almost have to put it
down to tires (unless you accept that it's rider weight!). As you work
down the Bridgestone order you run into questionmarks - for Hopkins
and Vermeulen it's their bikes, for D'Antin and Gresini it's their
riders, then there's Melandri, and for the rest it's both. But when
you see someone like Dovizioso faster than all the Bridgestones but
Rossi and Stoner, and the latter only .03 second quicker, you have to
say there's a huge tire factor at play.
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Posted by Champ on March 28, 2008, 5:19 pm
On Fri, 28 Mar 2008 13:28:31 -0700 (PDT), Mark N
> Champ wrote:
>> Mark N wrote:
>> >Can't even talk about what's going on without mentioning tires (but
>> >which you managed to do anyway, btw) - clearly a Michelin weekend
>> >again.
>>
>> Much like Qatar - I have a theory that it was only Stoner and Rossi
>> who could make the Bridgestones work at that track, and they seem to
>> be doing the same here.
>
>Maybe just a matter of semantics, but my guess is that it's more like
>Rossi-Yamaha and Stoner-Ducati are easily the best rider-bike
>combinations on Bridgestones right now.
Sure, that's what I meant to say, but didn't make it as clear.
>Meaning the tires aren't
>necessarily working for them, rather they are at least able to run
>very close to the front even when they don't work as well as the
>Michelins. If Lorenzo is faster than Rossi you almost have to put it
>down to tires (unless you accept that it's rider weight!). As you work
>down the Bridgestone order you run into questionmarks - for Hopkins
>and Vermeulen it's their bikes, for D'Antin and Gresini it's their
>riders, then there's Melandri, and for the rest it's both. But when
>you see someone like Dovizioso faster than all the Bridgestones but
>Rossi and Stoner, and the latter only .03 second quicker, you have to
>say there's a huge tire factor at play.
No argument from me.
Rossi might be kicking himself - if he and Burgess have done the same
analysis, they know they'd be running better on Michelins right now.
But then again, if Rossi thinks he just has to beat Stoner for the
title (which is probably true, with perhaps Pedrosa too), then
eliminating any tyre difference is one less thing to worry about.
--
Champ
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