Qualifying for MotoGP today:
1) Loris Capirossi Ducati Marlboro Team 1:39.064
2) Sete Gibernau Ducati Marlboro Team 1:39.285
3) Shinya Nakano Kawasaki Racing Team 1:39.526
4) Nicky Hayden Repsol Honda Team 1:39.666
5) Dani Pedrosa Repsol Honda Team 1:39.734
6) Toni Elias Fortuna Honda 1:39.875
7) Marco Melandri Fortuna Honda 1:39.932
8) Randy De Puniet Kawasaki Racing Team 1:40.146
9) Valentino Rossi Camel Yamaha Team 1:40.160
10) Colin Edwards Camel Yamaha Team 1:40.181
11) Chris Vermeulen Rizla Suzuki MotoGP 1:40.215
12) John Hopkins Rizla Suzuki MotoGP 1:40.340
13) Kenny Roberts Jnr. Team Roberts 1:40.497
14) Carlos Checa Tech 3 Yamaha 1:40.851
15) Casey Stoner Honda LCR 1:40.982
So the immediate story is Bridgestones across the front row; last year
here the fastest Bridgestone in the QP was Nakano in 5th. Second in line
is Rossi well back down the field. A distant third is Suzuki even
deeper, despite the apparently superior qualifying rubber. What I find
interesting as well is even with the relatively close times, so many of
the teammates are so close to each other - the Marlboro Ducatis 1st and
2nd, the Repsol Hondas 4th and 5th, the Fortuna Hondas 6th and 7th, the
Camel Yamahas 9th and 10th, the Suzukis 11th and 12th.
So what distortion is there in looking at Q times, what about pace on
race rubber? The Ducatis were 2nd and 4th in the morning session, and
Capirossi was able to post a couple high 1:40s on race tires in the QP,
and otherwise low 41s; in the morning he was solidly in the low-mid 41s
and had a run of 3 high 40s late. So that's the expected pace, right
about 41-flat. Gibernau's morning times were just a hair higher,
although he did a number of low 41s and had one high 40; in the Q it was
more of the same, and he did back-to-back high 40s early on. About the
longest run either rider did all day was about six laps at speed.
Nakano wasn't on that pace, only 12th quick in the morning and mostly
mired in the 42s, with some high 41s, and in the Q he did only one run
of laps, the best being 41.9s. Hayden was mid-high 41s early in QP, got
down to a 41.1, then a couple 40s on what probably were Qs but not
certain; in the morning he got down to mid-low 41s but after a lot of
time in the 42s and even 43s. Pedrosa was 3rd in the morning, did a lot
of 41s and even 4 high 40s at the end. He was mid-41s in QP before going
to the Qs, though.
Elias was 6th in P3, getting down to steady mid-low 41s, and in QP he
had just one 41.9 before going to the Qs. Melandri led the morning
session with a 40.7 but that wasn't a good indicator, as he had to work
to get to mid-low 41s; in QP his race tire best looks like mid-41s. De
Puniet didn't get in many laps in QP before going to the Qs, and he
didn't get out of the 42s in the morning.
Now to the Yamahas. In QP Rossi was 10th, barely faster than his
session-leading time in Q2, and was doing a lot of high 41s before
working into the mid-41s late. In QP he was pretty steadily in the
mid-41s during two longer runs before going to the Qs, his best 41.3s.
Edwards was also running into a wall at mid-41s during three sustained
runs in P3, and didn't get below 41.5 in QP. The other Yamaha of note,
Checa, had a race tire best of 41.9 in QP, and was mired in the 43s in P3.
The Suzukis are next, Hopkins 13th in P3 and getting to 41.8s, Vermuelen
14th and a best of 41.6 but his only sub-42 lap. In QP, Chris did a run
of four high-41s, best of 41.8, and Hopper also had a run with a best of
41.6. Roberts was 6th in P3, and it appears that between the sessions he
may have managed to get to very low 41s without a Q, but not certain.
Stoner was 5th in the morning, able to do a run of three mid-low 41s
late after a troubled session; in the QP he was solidly in the 41s, down
to mid-41s, but didn't make the most of the Qs. The last Honda, Tamada,
was 15th in the morning with a best of 42.3, and in QP he apparently
didn't do any better until slapping on the Qs.
So Ducati leads the way on Bridgestone race tires, and the Kawasakis
were actually slower than the Suzukis until the soft stuff came out.
Pedrosa really had the best pace on Japanese machinery, seemingly able
to stick with the Ducs, and Hayden has potential to do so as well. It
seems like the Camel boys have hit a wall that may be as much as a half
second off race pace, so that doesn't look good. The Fortuna boys don't
look any faster at the moment. If the Suzukis can get off the line fast
it appears they can run with the faster group, but seem destined to
finish 20-25 seconds behind the race winner.
Anyway, right now it looks like a Ducati day, unless Pedrosa can last
race distance at his best pace, then maybe a Biaggi-like first race
shocker. I don't quite rule Hayden out either, but seems very unlikely;
a podium would be a great result. Rossi appears equally unlikely, given
all the laps here and the inability to even approach a 40. My guess is
that the Kawis and Suzukis will hang for a while but finish behind the
faster Yamahas and Hondas. Both Roberts and Stoner have a decent shot
at a top ten, Checa doesn't, and I don't know why Tamada bothers to show
up at all...
S Frank wrote:
> I wouldn't doubt Rossi being in the lead by the fourth lap.
>
> "sturd" wrote
>> Mark N prognosticates:
>>> don't quite rule Hayden out either, but seems very unlikely
>> He outqualified Pedrosa, how do you think Pedrosa has
>> a chance but not Hayden? You don't detail Hayden's
>> pace - maybe that's why?
>> Don't count out Rossi, no matter how bad the bike
>> chatters (or whatever his royal highness prefers to
>> call it).
Yeah, well, you guys probably would predict that Rossi could walk across
the lagoon at Laguna. I think this is a little different than the usual
deal where he might have gone a bit wrong in practice and it can be
righted by trying something else in the warmup. Here he's had three days
of testing and now three hours of practice, and he's solidly a half
second off the pace. He also said they were completely out of ideas,
which is an unusual and perhaps telling statement for him. He could
still put it on the box, but I can't see him beating the Ducatis unless
something goes horribly wrong for them. His best bet would seem to be
emergency Michelins flown in overnight, still warm from the ovens.
My guess is a Ducati one-two, and then Pedrosa and Melandri as the most
likely in 3rd, followed by Hayden. Rossi really should beat the rest.
Hayden hasn't show much consistent pace at all, but that's not unusual
for him. Pedrosa has definitely been faster on race tires.
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