Motegi QP

 
...wow.

What did they feed Capirossi? The next 17 riders are all within 1s, but
Capirossi's half a second ahead...

 
And Rossi back in 11th. It's going to make for an interesting first 5
laps.

Big up for Hopkins too.

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 pablo wrote:

It's only qualifying, I mean a flash in the pan lap makes a rider bike
combo look good but really all that counts is consistent lap times for a
race.

Melandri on 3rd but really he hasn't been a consistent front runner this
weekend where as Rossi has. I think the Yammis just didn't have the
ability to do a real fast sprint lap but still have the consistency to
be a major competior in the race.

Capirossi is a dilema, he has been fast all weekend but I just aren't
convinced the Duc will remain fast over the race distance.

I think in the end Biaggi, Rossi and Tamada will be the ones deciding
the podium, to me they have the consistency needed to win at Motegi.

Paul

 Paul B wrote:

Almost the entire story at Motegi is the tires, which was also entirely
predictable. This is by some margin Bridgestone's track and it has
shown, and remember that Tamada and Hopkins were 1-2 in qualifying last
year and Tamada won the race easily.

In terms of pace, one would assume the race will be at somewhere
mid-high 47s, the usual 1+ second off pole time at a longer track.
Capirossi on his extended morning run was mostly low 48s with a couple
47s thrown in, and then did a half dozen 47s on race tires in the
afternoon. Hopkins is mid 48s, both sessions, so he doesn't quite have
the pace, which is no surprise. Melandri was pretty much the same, mid
to low 48s before he threw on the Qs. Tamada was mid 48s and got down to
a couple low ones before the Qs went on, and in P3 he was slow until he
did three straight low 48s later, before it looks like he started
throwing on soft tires.

Biaggi's the first Michelin runner to hint at a 47 pace, stuck more in
the 49s in the morning but ending up with a 47 on 5-lap-old tire, and
was very low 48s with at least one 47 on race tires in the Q. Hayden was
way off the pace in the morning, and was inconsistent but better in the
afternoon, doing one 47 and a couple low 48s. Gibernau was much the same
in the Q, and was steady mid 48s in the morning. Roberts actually hinted
at real speed in the Q session, not doing too many laps and looks like
only one Q run (did he have a problem at the end?), but did a mid 47 and
two very low 48s on race tires. He also popped a 47 in the morning, may
have been a soft tire.

Checa was faster than his grid position indicates, at one point in the Q
doing 48.1, 48.0, 48.0, 47.9 run. In the morning he was struggling to
get to mid 48s, though. Barros did one low 48 very early in the Q, but
then slipped off that pace for the balance of the session. He did pop a
high 47 in the morning, and was more steadily in the low 48s. Rossi was
similar, in P3 a high 47 at one point, mid 48s early, then low 48s, but
went off that right at the end. In the Q he was mid 48s on the two runs
he did before going to the Qs. Edwards was also on a mid 48 pace during
his afternoon extended run, and struggled getting in that territory in
the morning. Nakano struggled to get to mid 48s in the morning as well,
and did no extended running at all in the Q, so no pace determinable,
and was outqualified by Hofmann.

So it looks to me like it's Capirossi's race to lose. Beyond that, hard
to say. Tamada will be going for it at home, and looks to have potential
podium speed. Checa also has his best shot at a podium, but he has to
work his way forward from the end of row 3. Biaggi and Gibernau probably
have the best Michelin pace, plus Rossi, although Hayden and Melandri
could be there as well. Roberts looks like the wildcard to me, just
possibly enough to run close to the front. Nakano is the biggest
disappointment so far, surprisingly off the pace. And what will Rossi
do? He's really struggling and on the 4th row, but has shown decent pace
as well. My guess is no win and very possibly off the box, but I don't
count him out either. And he could throw it away trying too hard, just
as he did at Rio and Losail last year when he started back in the pack.

Should be interesting...

 

Excellent analysis. When you write like this, it is a pleasure to read,
really.

I still have a problem comprehending Capirossi's .5s lead, and instinctively
question whether he'll show such superior pace in the race. Nothing we've
seen all year indicates it.

Whether the Bridgestone advantage holds up over a long race seems
questionable.

This will be interesting because with Rossi seemingly off the pace, many
riders will probably go hell for leather for the chance to score a win that
may redeem their season somewhat (except for Hayden, who already has his
under the belt).

...pablo