No comments on Sepang sessions...? - Page 5

 


Suggest you go back and look at the practice sessions for Sepang 2009
FP1 5 riders covered by 1s
FP2 8 riders covered by 1s
QP  4 riders covered by 1s

Typical splits between the top rider on each machine and the second on
the same machine are in the 0.4s to 1.5s range.

If the equivalent splits in this test session are less, it would be easy
to explain it because; Everyone is a bit rusty after the break; they're
spending most of the time *testing* not chasing a time; Several of the
bikes are significantly different from last year; Bridgestone are also
testing in exceptional heat; the sessions were upset by rain; Nobody
wants to get hurt right now. And most everyone was quite a way off QP
perhaps partly because there's not the same motivation to surf the edge.

And in general team mates finish in the same order as they always do.

So clearly it's completely obvious that:-
- Ducati are building a bike for Stoner only and hurting all their other
riders
- Honda are building a bike for Pedrosa only and hurting all their other
riders
- Honda are giving the satellite teams an uncompetitive bike
- Yamaha are giving Tech3 a detuned engine
- Suzuki don't know how to do it, but Capirossi flatters what they bring
- If you're not an ex-250 midget you haven't got a hope
- Spies is the great white hope.

It's not hard to find stuff to justify all of that. But after a while
some of it just looks like fruitcake paranoid conspiracies.

Or perhaps
- Stoner really is an alien. He does actually have an alien ability to
hit the edge on every single lap he does without falling off
- Hayden isn't an alien. He's just plain slower than Stoner. Still
faster than a lot of others but just not in the same league as the top 4
- Pedrosa has worked out how to use his light weight and is just plain
faster then Dovi
- Rossi and Lorenzo are very close in ability but they're both
significantly faster than Edwards and always have been
- The jury's still out on Spies. Maybe he's another Lorenzo. Maybe he's
a bit better than Edwards. Maybe he'll have a year like Toseland's
first. We'll see.

--
Julian Bond  E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com  M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster:          http://www.ecademy.com/       T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog:    http://www.voidstar.com/      skype:julian.bond?chat
                            Preserve Nature

 

Julian Bond wrote:


Unless it happens to be the warmup lap, that is, or when a championship
lies in the balance...


And yet he finishes only 13th in the championship, one that includes
only 17 riders in the end. Of course that is kind of misleading, as he
was taken out on the opening lap of 3 races last year and finished only
11 points out of 7th, which is where he probably would have been without
that. Which at best means he would have finished a winless 6th, 7th and
8th in the three years of 800 MotoGP, as the #2 on factory teams next to
ex-250 midgets Pedrosa and Stoner, compared to 1st and 3rd and three
wins the prior two years in 990 MotoGP, when he was also a #2 on a
factory team.

So Stoner is an alien, but since he's on "his Ducati" the only points of
comparison we have are his years in 125 and 250, where he was never a
champion (making him the only factory rider in MotoGP today who wasn't,
except Hayden, who of course never raced there), and his first year on
the Honda, where he finished 8th with 119 points in 17 races and one
podium; Hayden in his first year, when he also had to learn all the
tracks unlike Stoner and was racing abroad for the first time, finished
5th with 130 points in 16 races and two podiums. But Stoner is a second
per lap faster than Hayden on pure talent?

My points here are of course these: There is something about the Ducati
that makes it work for Stoner and not for anyone else and it seems most
people accept that to some degree given the results of the last three
years, and in electronically-controlled 800cc MotoGP very light riders
with a 125/250 background have some level of advantage over larger
riders with a production racing background that they have never had
before. In other words, nothing new here.


Quite possible, but it's also possible that the fact that Dani has been
Honda's number one for several years now and has been the target of
their bike development generally or specifically since the Brno bike in
2005 and his 25-pound weight advantage (according to the published
weights) have created that edge. And of course Honda has never had a
number one who had as little success as Dani for so long and not gotten
demoted or fired, which suggests they either have taken much of the
blame upon themselves or they have such an investment in him that it's
not easy to abandon that direction and change course.


Which would mean we have three riders - Lorenzo, Stoner, Pedrosa - who
all came up through 125/250 at about the same time, who are as small or
smaller than and past premier class champions, and who have ability very
close to the Greatest rider Of All Time. This starts to stretch
credibility, makes one with a more balanced view look for other answers,
no matter what one thinks of Edwards.


Or maybe he's as good as anyone out there and possibly even better, but
will never quite show it in MotoGP, because he's too big, his background
is too production, his nationality is too American. So far his results
are exceptional in both the AMA and WSB, so there is really no good
reason to think he isn't as good as anyone, but everyone has so
internalized what the deal is in MotoGP today that they at least
subconsciously are forced to consider the possibility that he'll wash
out in a couple years (Toseland) as seriously as being a future title
contender (pick any 500 champion 83-98). That's a very interesting
phenomenon.

 


Getting the excuses prepared already? Seems a little premature.

--
Julian Bond  E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com  M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster:          http://www.ecademy.com/       T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog:    http://www.voidstar.com/      skype:julian.bond?chat
                     Multigrain For A Unique Taste

 

 Julian Bond wrote:

Perhaps so. Even you and Pablo won't be calling for his head until he
goes three or four races without a win...

 


what's new. when it comes to 2010 predictions, a safe one is that
consiracy theories will continue to rum amuck in RMR... jfk got shot
by euromed midgets.

i think Spies is amazing, and that he will show it with a top 5
position. i think Spies will do quite well in MotoGP. his approach is
impeccable. and the Yamaha doiesn't seem to be any worse for not being
geared towards midgets, since neither Rossi nor Edwards fall into that
category.

of course, if Edwards was Spanish.. can you imagine the rampant cries
about favoritism despite lack of results would be uttered by our
resident crusader against the evil euromed superpowers that constantly
conspire against that meek helpless former colony...? never won a race
on ce ion 7 years blah blah... geez, at least Checa *won* a race here
and there. and was ten pounds heavier than that texas tornado :-D

i don't worry about Spies much. he'll carve his place and will be
champion in the next few years, no doubt. if anyone out there is more
promising, i haven't met then yet. Pedrosa will *never* be champion.
Stonr and Lorenzo make huge mistakes under pressure, and seem to
seasoned to move away from that. like Schwantz back in the day, it
will take for some higher force (i would not call that luck) to
finally win their title despite having shown they can be very fast on
a given day. within 2 years it'll be Rossi on a Ducati against Spies
as the top Yamaha guy. let's dream.