The same for Hayden, one slip and who knows, the pressure is on him now, he
has to ride hard, no more just going for points and he may get his first DNF
trying.
Paul
> On Tue, 10 Oct 2006 08:40:59 GMT, Julian Bond
>>>> And here's the odds on the championship.
>>>>
>>>> V Rossi 2/5
>>>> N Hayden 7/4
>>>> L Capirossi 25/1
>>>> M Melandri 40/1
>>>> D Pedrosa 66/1
>>Personally, I think it's going to be a very, very close thing. 12 points
>>in two races is just too much to be able to say anything with any
>>certainty. Rossi has to win both, Hayden has to come second in both. I
>>don't think either of those are sure fire, or perhaps even likely.
> Agreed. Interesting parallel with F1, where it looked like Schumacher
> might snatch it from Alonso, but fell at the penultimate hurdle.
> Similarly, while the momentum is with Rossi, one slip and it'll be
> gone.
> --
> Champ
Julian Bond wrote:
> Personally, I think it's going to be a very, very close thing. 12 points
> in two races is just too much to be able to say anything with any
> certainty. Rossi has to win both, Hayden has to come second in both. I
> don't think either of those are sure fire, or perhaps even likely.
I don't think it's the 12 points that makes it all that uncertain,
rather it's that Rossi has to finish both races and at or near the
front. Which is about what Hayden has to do also, if you think about it.
In terms of the numbers, Rossi has won five times this year, and Hayden
has finished 1st or 2nd five times, which looks about even. But Hayden
got two of those when Rossi DNFed and a third at Assen when Rossi was
riding hurt and starting way back. The other two were 2nd to Rossi.
Rossi's bike is working now, he's qualifying well, and it seems Hayden's
bike has been suffering it's worst problems lately as well.
In terms of history, Rossi had won four in a row at Estoril before
taking 2nd last year; he was 3rd as a 500 rookie in 2000. Hayden
finished 9th in '03, a distant 7th last year, and missed the round with
injury in '04. At Valencia, Rossi was 3rd last year after qualifying
15th, won in '03 and '04, and was 2nd in '02. Hayden crashed out in '03
and '04, although he qualified and ran well while he lasted, and was 2nd
last year.
So Rossi has a huge edge at Estoril by any measure, including momentum.
Valencia is probably more even, but for Hayden to win the championship
I think he has to go in there knowing if Rossi wins and he finishes 2nd
he'll take the championship. That is very unlikely to be the case, in my
estimation; his best bet is probably winner-take-all at Valencia. And
that's a tall order against Rossi, particularly if his bike is working
and yours isn't...
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>>>> And here's the odds on the championship.
>>>>
>>>> V Rossi 2/5
>>>> N Hayden 7/4
>>>> L Capirossi 25/1
>>>> M Melandri 40/1
>>>> D Pedrosa 66/1
>>Personally, I think it's going to be a very, very close thing. 12 points
>>in two races is just too much to be able to say anything with any
>>certainty. Rossi has to win both, Hayden has to come second in both. I
>>don't think either of those are sure fire, or perhaps even likely.
> Agreed. Interesting parallel with F1, where it looked like Schumacher
> might snatch it from Alonso, but fell at the penultimate hurdle.
> Similarly, while the momentum is with Rossi, one slip and it'll be
> gone.
> --
> Champ