> [snip]
Enjoyable read. Thanks. This NG is much too quite of late.
My $0.02...
Spies-GP: I have more hope for him in MotoGP now than I did this time
two weeks ago. His performance in Valencia and in the subsequent
testing was extremely encouraging, especially when you consider that
he (by most accounts) didn't fiddle with the bike and only fiddled
with his own game. It's an extremely mature approach and I hope one
that rewards him. It'd be nice to see someone else besides Jorge take
it to Rossi. Could make for one or two interesting 3-ways next year.
Spies-SBK: I have much more appreciation for his WSBK championship
now that I've read Wayne Gardner's assessment of the seven bikes
posted elsewhere on this forum. I suppose it all has to be taken with
a grain of salt, however, since it's doubtful Gardner was capable of
riding hard enough to wring the last one or two percent (five or six
percent?) of performance out. After all, that's the zone where all
the WSBK regulars are supposed to reside, no?
Hayden: Solid improvement on the Ducati and I found his season's
progression encouraging since I'm a fan. However, I've lost any hope
that he'll ever achieve more than the isolated podium and/or win this
point. There's just something that doesn't gel about the impressions
he gives off. Despite his outward persona and his strong work ethic,
I get the impression that he either settles too easily or that he's
lost whatever edge he once had and doesn't believe in himself any more
after living in the same house as Stoner for a season.
Haga: What do you say? The championship was his and he lost it.
Toseland: Spies made him look silly in Valencia. I honestly thought
Toseland was better than he's proven this season. He, like my
impression of Hayden, has perhaps lost the faith?
Edwards: Gives me hope for old men. I've been a fan for a long time
and finishing the championship as the first "human" makes him look
very good. There's a nagging little voice in the back of my mind,
though, that keeps asking if any besides the four "aliens" were really
MotoGP calibre this year?
-Chris-
Dirt wrote:
> Hayden: Solid improvement on the Ducati and I found his season's
> progression encouraging since I'm a fan. However, I've lost any hope
> that he'll ever achieve more than the isolated podium and/or win this
> point. There's just something that doesn't gel about the impressions
> he gives off. Despite his outward persona and his strong work ethic,
> I get the impression that he either settles too easily or that he's
> lost whatever edge he once had and doesn't believe in himself any more
> after living in the same house as Stoner for a season.
I think his issues are mostly bike, but I am concerned with what his
circumstances have done to his head in the last four years. For a guy
to not be treated as a true #1 and then win the champ[ionship anyway,
then have the new bike be built for his teammate and to be demorte
immediately, then to get fired and move on only to be "Ducatied" is a
lot to not have it impact his confidence. Eventually the reality that
the series he's racing in doesn't want him doing too well has to have
an impact of some kind. But I don't think he's yet sunk out of sight
in this regard, I think if the bike gets better so will he, although
it will take a Stoner-like miracle ('07 version) to land him in the
right circumstances that will allow him to really contend. I think if
Ducati wants to sign Rossi for 2011 they have to make the bike work
for Hayden, so Rossi will think he can win on it. But the ultimate
result for Nick may well be that he gets to ride as Rossi's #2 in 2011
at Ducati, or replaces Spies or Edwards at Tech 3. With the four
aliens chasing three jobs, that doesn't leave Nick with a lot of good
options. Now if he can only hang on until 2012 and the new 1000s...
> Edwards: Gives me hope for old men. I've been a fan for a long time
> and finishing the championship as the first "human" makes him look
> very good. There's a nagging little voice in the back of my mind,
> though, that keeps asking if any besides the four "aliens" were really
> MotoGP calibre this year?
I did some looking at the alien business from a statistical standpoint
recently, and this is what I found. First, the average margin from 1st
to 5th in the races the last few years:
2006 - 13.16 seconds
2007 - 21.22 seconds
2008 - 23.17 seconds
2009 - 25.75 seconds
So while it continues to climb, it's seems like the switch to 800s has
made the most difference. And the switch to spec tires hasn't made the
racing any closer in this regard. One particular thing I noticed about
2009 is that this margin grew all year, with 5th place falling farther
and farther off as the year went on.
Then I looked at the average margin between each rider and the race
winner for everyone who raced in both '08 and '09, to see if the
aliens had pulled away from everyone, and this is what I found:
Melandri: 2008 - 57.18 seconds, 2009 - 45.32 -11.86
Lorenzo: 2008 - 14.26, 2009 - 4.29 -9.96
Elias: 2008 - 47.94, 2009 - 41.07 -6.87
de Angelis: 2008 - 42.88, 2009 - 36.88 -5.88
de Puniet: 2008 - 43.85, 2009 - 38.80 -5.04
Dovizioso: 2008 - 24.27, 2009 - 21.26 -3.01
Stoner: 2008 - 9.81, 2009 - 8.97 -0.83
Rossi: 2008 - 5.89, 2009 - 5.37 -0.52
Pedrosa: 2008 - 14.34, 2009 - 17.25; +2.92
Edwards: 2008 - 28.20, 2009 - 31.93 +3.73
Capirossi: 2008 - 35.03, 2009 - 40.16 +5.13
Hayden: 2008 - 23.20, 2009 - 34.52
+11.32
Toseland: 2008 - 35.87, 2009 - 48.89 +13.02
Vermeulen: 2008 - 30.50, 2009 - 46.51 +16.01
The numbers don't include DNFs, DNSs or races where the rider was
lapped. Some results are impacted by unusual results, like Pedrsa
finishing 48 seconds back at Losail and picking up his bike at Indy
and finishing instead of just taking a DNF. But what I see is what I
kind of thought I'd see, which is that the guys who should be closest
to the aliens based on past performances and who ran closest in 2008
have fallen off, while the guys farther back have actually gained
ground on the aliens. It's worth noting that both Stoner and Rossi
actually gained a little even though the both actually won fewer races
than they did in '08 (although Stoner also had all those races which
weren't included), Dovizioso gained overall going from a satellite
Honda to a factory Honda and from Michelins to Bridgestones (although
he contributed to the 1st-to-5th dropoff I mentioned, falling farther
and farther behind as the year wore on), the satellite Hondas dained
materially, this confirms Lorenzo's big move this year, Edwards
actually lost ground in a year that everyone thinks he stepped it up,
and Melandri gained 11 seconds getting off the Ducati while Hayden
lost 11 seconds getting on it. Also worth noting is that the bigger
guys and the superbike guys, which are pretty much the same guys, tend
to be at the bottom of the list. They also were the guys one would
figure would have been closest to the aliens, for the most part, which
is why the aliens made the jump.
I also looked at the race elapsed times in '08 and '09 in races where
weather didn't play a major role either year, and in those 10 races
the time went up 5 times and went down 5 times; eyeballing it, it
appeared that on average the races were very slightly faster, but not
materially. So the aliens weren't actually faster in '09 than the top
guys in '08. The average margin of victory went from 5.43 seconds to
5.11 seconds, not much of a change, so less close racing didn't make
the races slower overall.
Again, my conclusion is what I suspected - the group A aliens were
created by a falloff in the group B riders, but group A didn't get any
faster, nor did group C get any slower overall. What is discouraging
is that there might not be a great deal of hope than these guys will
get faster in 2010, because their situations don't appear to have
changed that much or they are gone altogether, and the replacements
are mostly a bunch of kids from 250, by all appearances the second
round of KR's "mediocre 250 riders". So the best hopes are probably
Hayden, if he and Ducati can make that bike work, Melandri, on the
best bike for him since the 990s, Spies, if the satellite Yamaha is
good enough and he doesn't suffer too much with lack of testing and
practice, Dovizioso, if he works better with his new team, and maybe
Simoncelli, if his size hurts him less on an 800 than it did on a 250.
I see no reason to think Edwards will get any closer.
On Wed, 18 Nov 2009 07:48:04 -0800, Mark N
>Time to hand out this year's Markie awards, so with no further ado...
>World Superbike:
>The Biggest Non-Story - Phlegminis' Miracle.
I would say the biggest non-story of the year for WSBK was the BSB
invasion. We had this much ballyhooed infusion of new riders that was
supposed to really up the rider talent level. Prior to the season
people right here on rmr were speculating that 12 or 15 guys could
possibly win races over the season. What a flop that was. In part
due to Spies and a lesser extent Haga. In part due to the economy
affecting teams like Stiggy. In part because the talent may have been
overstated. The most interesting of those riders to me was Haslam.
He really overperformed on a bike/team that probably shouldn't have
been as good as it was. Of course, Rea progressed quite well too and
will be a major factor for the championship over the next couple
years.
As for next year, I think Toseland is in a lose/lose situation where
anything less than a six wins and a title will be an embarrassing
failure. I'm hopeful that Kawasaki really does plan to focus heavily
on WSBK so Chris the V will have a good ride and show his true skills.
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