Sepang spoiler

 Wow! God pulls another rabbit out of his hat. Rossi was 0.5s down going
into the last lap, catches Capirossi, passes him and then blocks the
last corner. Loris just didn't have the tyres or drive to hold Rossi
off. But the real hero is Dani in 3rd who looked ashen faced and
couldn't manage the press conference, being whisked away to be rebuilt.
So with a gash requiring 4 stitches just below the kneecap that's been
opening up every time he gets on the bike how much better will it be in
7 days time?

And then there's Hayden. Yet again he just didn't quite have the speed
and everyone is pointing at HRC. It's an open question that's becoming
more and more crucial as to whether he would have been faster on the
production RCV instead of the development bike. If he ends up losing the
championship, I think he'll every justification for pointing at HRC and
blaming them. This has more ramifications than just him. He's still
negotiating with Honda for another contract with lots of other waiting
to see where he ends up before their own contracts get sorted. If he
jumped to Ducati or Yamaha, it would set off a domino line of other
changes.

Hayden  214
Pedrosa 192 -22
Rossi 188 -26
Capirossi 171 - 43
Melandri 168 - 46

4 races and 100 points still to go. Still looks like Hayden, Pedrosa and
Rossi needing a win at the final race to win the championship. But will
they go into that last race with <5 points between them? Could happen.
And how good would that be.

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 Julian Bond wrote:

Yeah, it's hard to tell.  At one level, he's giving development input
and so bears some responsibility for the state of the bike.  But on the
other hand, it is HRC, known for giving riders the bike that HRC wants
them to have as opposed to vice versa, and how much help can the rider
give for the clutch?  It's not like chassis settings or something.

Reading the press releases you almost have to wonder if Honda would
prefer Rossi just nipping the championship from Pedrosa at the end of
the year, amazing rookie season, wave of the 800cc future, blah blah,
to Hayden winning it and then leaving.


Did we ever get confirmation as to if Ducati had resigned Sete?  5th
place wasn't bad for his first race back, I have to say.

-jake

-jake

 

Yeah it would, but I don't think it will happen for a number of reasons, I
just wished that if/when the title comes home, he does too...
"1. Capi
2. Sete
3. Vale
4. Nicky
and not nesessarily in that order... "
Hmm, 4, outta 5, not too shabby if I say so myself...



Why, So Rossi could steal/seal it in Valencia? For Nicky's sake it better
not come to that. I just hope the re-match of last years PI race has a
little bit different ending this time around, but from the looks of things
it prolly won't..

 Julian Bond wrote:

A great fight, but somehow a totally predictable result. And on that
last lap two more samples of the "Italian maneuver", first Rossi shoved
his way inside Loris, a bit out of control under braking and loris'
extended knee hitting Vale's fairing, straightening him up, then Loris
turning off his brain Argentina-style from way back into the last bend,
really no chance of pulling it off cleanly, but not doing any damage in
the end. Whatever, it was in the middle section on that last lap where
Rossi made up most of the time, the section where he was notably
superior to Capirossi all race long.

But the real hero is Dani in 3rd who looked ashen faced and

And the FIM can hardly help him there, can thay? Looks like the injury
isn't a crippling one, just an issue of pain management, and getting
shot up all to hell took care of that sufficiently, another miracle
provided by one Claudio Costa, MD. Interesting that this happened here,
the same place that saw Melandri put in an equally miraculous ride to
5th after his Motegi injury one year ago. One has to assume this injury
will be at least as sore a week from now, but Costa will go at him like
a pin cushion again.

The race made the rainout and the FIM's grid decision even larger, I
think. His best lap in that 3rd session and in the warmup was a 2:06,
which suggests that had the Q been run and he hadn't been shot up, he
would have qualified near the back. Had the FIM decided to use just the
3rd session for the grid, he would have started last and would have
never rode through to that podium, his speed just wasn't that much
greater than the guys immediately behind him. So Pedrosa was given a
HUGE gift this weekend, and the guy who was hurt most by it was Hayden,
who not only lost ground to Pedrosa but also lost even more ground to
Rossi. Watch those points at the end...


It's not a "production" RCV, it's a factory RCV based on the same
parameters as the past factory machines. There's nothing "production"
about Dani's bike.

If he ends up losing the

It really puts him in an odd position in terms of making a decision for
next year, and we don't know all the issues. If HRC really refused to
let Nicky race the faster bike in the winter and made big promises
regarding the development of the new one, then he has every right to
believe that Honda has screwed him, and in favor of Pedrosa. Given that
situation, do you come back there? Even if he's on the "same" bike as
Dani next year, it's not necessarily same-same (look at Edwards), and
the development path will be more for Dani than Nick, that's certain. I
think the situation has parallels to brother Tommy's situation in the
AMA, and they are likely in the end going to go where they feel they'll
have the best shot at winning. For Nick that may not be Honda. And what
if Nick does decide to move on? Watch for Honda to rat-fuck him at the
end of the year...


It's kind of too bad that the situation is the what it is right now, and
I put Rossi's chances as excellent again, the odds-on favorite. I've
been flip-flopping between Hayden and Rossi on the championship pretty
much since Rossi got hurt at Assen, but I went back strongly to Rossi on
Saturday, figuring he'd make up a fistful of points Sunday, which he
did. As well as Pedrosa did in the race, that injury still has to cast
some doubt on Philip Island, and I simply haven't ever believed he'd win
the championship this year anyway. The interview with Hayden after this
race  has him looking as discouraged as he's been all year, and it's
pretty clear that it's the bike that has him so down. You don't win
championships riding crap, and the positions of the top four guys in
this race shows that. Rossi's bike is fixed now, Dani's has always been
excellent, and Lori's will go as far as the tires will let him, but
Nicky's is still in as much doubt as the day he climbed on it at Jerez,
it seems.

A couple things not really mentioned here are how much it hurt Loris to
lose this race. As you can see, had he won this race he'd be 38 back of
Nicky, but only 7 behind Rossi, and still in with a chance, if slight.
He should be in the fight at PI, one of his best tracks, and really
should win at Motegi. The other thing is Melandri's terrible weekend,
9th in the race, which puts him out of it once and for all. WTF?

Anyway, I kind of think that PI is going to work out huge. The
long-range forecast for that area has rain next weekend, which shouldn't
be a surprise this early in their year. If dry, it's Rossi's track,
although Capirossi and Hayden have the record to indicate they should be
able to challenge. But Hayden has that bike tied to his ankle like a
boat anchor right now, so what are his chances? Motegi should go to
Capirossi, with Gibernau possibly factoring as well, and it's a track
that hasn't been kind to Yamaha or Rossi - Yamaha has never won there,
and Rossi not since '01. But Motegi was Nicky's worst race by far after
he started coming on last year. Estoril has been good to Rossi - he
dominated last year and has won 4 of the last 5, and 2nd in '04 in what
was a miraculous finish for him - and it's been a good Bridgestone track
as well. What it hasn't been is good for Nicky, 9th in '03, missed with
injury in '04, 7th last year.

So to me it seems Nicky has to rebound next weekend with a good finish,
probably no worse than one position behind Rossi, and then beat him at
Motegi if he has any chance at holding him off. It's too late to think
Honda will or even can fix that bike, he's on shit for the year now. If
things don't go Nicky's way, he might actually be pretty much out of it
by the time they arrive in Valencia. He's lost 25 points to Rossi over
the last two races, and at that rate Rossi would have 12/13 in hand
going into the last round. That's good as dead, unless the cloud that
has been over Vale's head this year returns one last time. But then
there's Dani...

 On Sun, 10 Sep 2006 09:57:54 GMT, Julian Bond


Fantastic rides again from Vale, Capirossi and Pedrosa.  A great
result for the championship, too, for me.


Rossi has change the required points catchup rate from 7.6 per race to
6.5 per race.  If he wins every remaining race, he's still going to
need others to finish ahead of Hayden.  But Nicky is really going to
have to lift his game over the next four races, I think - 4th just
isn't going to cut it.  I'm hoping Vale pulls it off, partly to cement
his reputation, and partly just to piss Mark off... :-)

--
Champ