The Strange Case of Aleix Espargaro

 

So here's a guy who had to head back to the Spanish championship because
his 250 team folded the tents earlier year. Last year he finished 12th
in the 250 championship, with a best finish of 5th at Sepang, the year
before he was 15th with a best of 10th, also at Sepang, and in '06 he
was 19th, appearing to have raced only a half season, and had a best
finish of 9th, yes, again at Sepang. In '05 he raced in 125, finished
16th, best finish of 7th, this time slightly north, in China; in '04 it
appears he took a wildcard stab or two but didn't score any points. So
an entirely undistinguished career in GP to date.

As for the Pramac fill-in ride, as MotoGPMatters put it, "Espargaro had
been given the ride mostly because he was available". In the process he
became the youngest Spaniard ever to race in the GP premier class, which
I guess shows that if one is Spanish one needs to neither be experienced
nor accomplished to land on a MotoGP machine. And he did pretty well,
too, 13th at Indy and 11th at Misano. Still, there were only 14
finishers at Indy (he beat Talmacsi) and he was more than a minute back.
But at Misano he beat three guys, including teammate Canepa by 17
seconds. More importantly, as we all know, he posted. "the fifth-fastest
lap of the race".

As Matters went on to say, "His two debut outings were certainly
impressive, but doubt still lingers over just how much luck was involved
in those results. Careful analysis of his races suggest that Espargaro
may well be the real deal". So let's look at that. First, his best lap
wasn't the 5th-fastest of the race, of course, Rossi alone bested that
time on each of the last 24 laps of the race. What he did was post a
race fast lap that was faster than all but four riders' race fast laps.
His lap was less than a second off of Rossi's best, but was also closer
to Canepa's time down in 13th. And in fact if you drop his best lap, his
2nd-fastest lap was only tied for 12th-best, with Toseland, and only
ahead of Canepa and Talmacsi. His best lap was in fact .353 second
faster than his 2nd-best.

So what made for this Miracle Lap? On that lap he didn't post his best
section time in 2nd section, or 3rd section, or 4th. He did in the first
section, and by a margin of .511 second - wow! As a comparison, for the
four guys with faster laps the largest margin between best and 2nd-best
times in that section was about one-tenth of that, Rossi's .053 second.
And in absolute terms, Espy's section time was beaten by Rossi by .016,
by Lorenzo by .002, and no one else. So how did he do it? Did he get The
Mother Of All Drafts down the front straight? Unlikely, too short. Or
did he cut the chicane? There is paved runoff there. Hmm.

What this reminds me of is that Ilmor/McCoy Mystery Lap at the Valencia
test at the end of the ZOOG season. You know, the one that was reported
by some of the Euro press, including MotoGP.com, something like a second
and a half faster than any posted by the bike all weekend, and faster
than many of the new Japanese/Italian 800s, which was causing a lot of
chatter. But it wasn't reported by other sites, including Soup and RRW,
it was simply missing, in its place much more realistic times for the
Ilmor.

In any case, what we have here is a Spaniard who gets a full-time MotoGP
ride, one of only 17, apparently on the strength of one fabulous and
rather dubious section time. As opposed to, say, Spies, who couldn't get
a MotoGP ride after beating one of the greatest riders of his generation
three straight years in the AMA SB championship and three very good GP
wildcard appearances, and needing to add a brilliant WSB rookie season
on top of that to finally make the grade. Or accomplished WSB/MotoGP
riders Vermeulen and Toseland, who have tangible things like
championships and multiple race wins on their records. I guess Ducati
knows what it takes to ride their bike. Or they are astoundingly desperate.

Sometimes the happenings in GP just make one shake one's head...

 


Or it's the Duke of Death effect. Apparently Vermeulen turned down that
ride. It rather looks as though Toseland did as well. So then we're down
to DeAngelis and Elias. And Elias has been there already. So yes, it
would appear that Ducati can't get anyone to take that ride. Where else
are they going to turn?

Aleix probably should be in GP somewhere; Moto2 would make the most
sense.

 >Sometimes the happenings in GP just make one shake one's head...

Indeed.

As for Spies, I'm glad he did the year in WSB. We got to see what he's
really capable of for a year rather than just being yet another 6-15th
place rider in MotoGP.

--
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Julian Bond  wrote:

Yeah, you're right, Espargaro is the only guy left. Please. If prior
to Indy you were making a list if all the guys who deserved a ride in
MotoGP, how far down the list would Espargaro be? Is there any chance
he'd be on the list at all? Even if there were, say, 100 riders on it?


Yeah, I guess, from the standpoint that someone who can finish in the
top 15 in points in 250 probably deserves a spot among 30-something
riders in Moto2. But MotoGP is another story entirely. The last time
something like this happened, I think, was McCoy in '99. But he racked
up some real results filling in that year, got on the podium once, so
one can see why he was given the ride in '00. Espargaro has done
nothing like that. If one assumes Vermeulen and Toseland actually
turned it down, I really felt de Angelis deserved that ride, as much
as it pains me to say so - better than Elias, who I think should be
demoted to Moto2.


It has been interesting and certainly reawakened my interest in WSB,
but I also would liked to have seen how he would have done on the
Suzuki. I think he well could have done better than Capirossi, and it
would just get better next year. But now I think Suzuki doesn't have
the riders for the future, immediate and beyond, as is always the case
they will be missing key parts to the puzzle.

I also think more than ever the best thing for MotoGP would be to
equalize package weight. The Untouchables are not good for GP, at
least beyond Spain and Italy, and that is pretty clearly the best
solution. If Rossi dominates again, okay, he probably deserves it and
has earned it, but the midgets haven't nearly so much, and as long as
they're running at the front the question will alway be out there.
Especially with race results like Estoril, when even Rossi couldn't
run with them. In that respect, maybe a Lorenzo championship would be
the best thing for GP, followed by Vale whispering in Carmelo's ear...

 


That was then. This is now and anyway it's the wrong question.

Please make a list of all the people who should get the ride on the Duke
of Death *and want it*. err, err, Chaz Davies? If you'd done the same
thing last year, I doubt Canepa would have been on it either. He's been
clearly out of his depth this year, but not completely hopeless, like,
say, Talmasci. It's not about who should be in MotoGP. It's about
getting somebody to sit on the last and least desirable seat when all
the others are taken.

Actually maybe there should be one ride in MotoGP that is a revolving
door for people with no ride in any other series or a loose ride, with a
different rider every race. Then people like Sete Gibernau, Chaz Davies,
AMA refugees, Guintoli, Barros could get a first or one last ride in
MotoGP.

Aside: secretly looking forward to seeing Hector Barbera on a Ducati.

--
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Julian Bond wrote:

Is it? I have a hard time believing no one will take a ride that is an
entry into MotoGP, or a way to stay there. Of course the guys who
believe they deserve better there will refuse it, but maybe that's 10,
12 guys. And the guys who can demand a top ride in WSB and get paid
there are unlikely as well, but that's even fewer guys. So even if you
write off 20, 25 guys that gets you nowhere near Espargaro on the list
of best prospects. Given that Elias had a few pretty good rides on the
Ducati in '08 and de Angelis had a fairly good run going recently, it's
surprising to me that they got left out in the cold on this ride. Of
course Ducati does churn through riders pretty quickly, seems quite
willing to toss them aside and not look back, and to some extent that
probably gets them into this kind of situation.

The thought on Canepa last year was that Ducati thought he had something
after a year of testing the bike and he was the Italian one assumes they
wanted, but it didn't really work out. Esparagaro is another matter
entirely, a judgment made on two fill-in weekends on a guy who basically
had done nothing to that point. Which brings us back to his Magical
Section Time that led to his Miracle Lap...


It's not a bad idea, and pumping up interest with wildcards this way
would be a good thing for the series. And it could be an extension of
the LCR idea of sponsor-for-a-day, bring in a pocketful of cash and be a
MotoGP star for a weekend. Of course you have to draw the line
somewhere, and it better be well above, say, Johnny Rock Page...


It's stuff like this that just scares me. I mean, some of these kids out
of 250 really are too dangerous to be on the grid, and I hold my breath
at the notion of Simoncelli next year. And then you throw this guy in
there as well. With Dorna, the FIM or whoever seemingly unwilling to
penalize anyone in MotoGP for dangerous riding after inconsistent
decisionmaking in the past, it is a troubling thought.