Valencia Qual spoiler

 Not a good day for "The Doc" 15th on the grid.

Mr Crash (Sete) 1st
Melandri 2nd
Hayden 3rd

As far as the race, Sete will make a mistake and drop back or just crash
out and blame the bike,  Rossi will find some setup magic and come
through the field and challenge Melandri while Hayden will make a
slendid effort but will be unable to run at the front towards the end of
the race and will settle for 3rd

Well maybe not, hard one to call. SURELY Sete has to get it together
this time and win, it's his home track, he's on pole and Rossi is at the
blunt end of the grid, Marco has been on the pace all weekend though and
may challenge him, but as long as Marco has Hayden behind him or in
front of him in 2nd place then he seals 2nd in the champs, Hayden has to
steal 6 points off Mel to get 2nd, but Hayden hasn't seemed to show the
pace of Mel over the weekend, not much in it maybe but those little bits
count.

I'm going to pick Sete to win, Mel 2nd and Hayden 3rd.

Paul

 I pick Melandri, Rossi, Hayden, Checa, Edwards.

 Paul B wrote:

[Just had to get that out of my system]

1. Sete GIBERNAU, Honda, 1:31.874
2. Marco MELANDRI, Honda, 1:32.111
3. Nicky HAYDEN, Honda, 1:32.21
4. Carlos CHECA, Ducati, 1:32.374
5. Max BIAGGI, Honda, 1:32.384
6. Colin EDWARDS, Yamaha, 1:32.456
7. Loris CAPIROSSI, Ducati, 1:32.482
8. Alex BARROS, Honda, 1:32.518
9. Shinya NAKANO, Kawasaki, 1:32.663
10. Makoto TAMADA, Honda, 1:32.682
11. John HOPKINS, Suzuki, 1:32.785
12. Alex HOFMANN, Kawasaki, 1:32.966
13. Toni ELIAS, Yamaha, 1:33.005
14. Nobuatsu AOKI, Suzuki, 1:33.393
15. Valentino ROSSI, Yamaha, 1:33.503
16. Ryuichi KIYONARI, Honda, 1:33.846
17. Ruben XAUS, Yamaha, 1:34.874
18. Roberto ROLFO, Ducati, 1:34.978
19. James ELLISON, Blata, 1:35.158
20. Kurtis ROBERTS, Proton, 1:35.374
21. Franco BATTAINI, Blata, 1:35.712

Really should be a good race, given what the players have done in
practice. In terms of pace, that looks like has been set by the Gresini
boys once again - Gibs had a mid-33 pace in the qualifying session and
had started tyhe morning session with a run of 5 33s, and Melandri
worked his way to mid-33s in the Q, doing four straight laps below 33.6
before going to the Qs; in the morning he dipped down to 33.5 a couple
times. Hayden had to work down from 35s to a few 33s in the morning, and
his fast one may have been on a soft tire; in the Q his first run
included six 33s, the last two 33.6s, but didn't get any faster on race
rubber. So he's hardly off the Gresini pace.

The second row is led by Checa, who was on point most of the Q with an
interesting session - he came out with a run of five laps, the last
three 33.3-33.1. Then he was in and out all session, doing two 32.4s
before he did his Q time of 32.37 on the 17th of his 24 laps. Not sure
what's happening there, but it sure looks like scary speed on race
tires. In the morning he did a run of 10 laps late, the last 5 at speed
  below 33.5. So he's really the guy with the pace. Again, this is a
Bridgstone track, based on Tamada last year.

Biaggi's next, doing low 34s early in the session, picking up from where
he ended in the morning, and then mid 33s before going to the Qs, four
straight at 33.3-33.6. And he managed to not squander that on the Qs
this time. Edwards made up ground with the Q, running a 34 pace until
just before the soft stuff went on, doing a couple 33.8s at the end.


Capirossi wasn't at Checa's pace, so my guess is that he's suffering
physically, but he did get unto the higher 33s. Barros has been
threatening all weekend, and ended up at mid-high 33s, doing a run of 9
laps late that topped out at 33.57. Nakano was mid-34s until the Qs and
was mired in the 35s in the morning, so he's the first guy clearly off
the pace. Tamada was on a 34 pace, only doing a couple high 33s. Like
Nakano, Hopkins was mid34s. And no one below that worth mentioning...

...except Rossi on the end of row five, that is. His crash late in the
session certainly messed things up, but he was already in trouble, his
pace in the session low 34s until he did a few high 33s right before the
crash, which was on his at-speed lap on his first Q. He got back on his
other bike and did three straight 33.5s on a Q before the flag. In the
morning he got quicker, doing two fast runs late in the session, the
first including four high 33s and the second ending 33.5, 33.3, 33.1.

So what do we have? A front row of the usual Hondas that can and will do
at least mid-33s and maybe low 33s in the race. Checa's Ducati looks
like it might have high 32s and maybe even mid-32s in it, but that's
hardly certain. Biaggi looks like he will be able to hand with the other
Hondas and he's in a position to do so on the grid, while Edwards looks
to be his usual .5 second off the race pace. The other guy who can run
the pace may be Rossi, if he can find the pace he showed in the morning
and gets through the field somehow.

So much comes down to the start. If Checa gets off in the lead and
really has superior pace he could roll off and not be seen again. The
four Hondas should run pretty close, so the start may make the
difference on what Hayden said was the toughest track to pass on in the
series. And Rossi almost has to get off quickly or risk getting mired
downfield while the others get away.

I don't think he has the speed to get it done, so won't win and probably
will be off the box, maybe ending up in the dirt as he did in Qatar last
year. I still suspect Checa will find the gravel as well, unless he has
real superiority, but is definitely a podium candidate and probably in
the best position to win a race in years. My guess is either on the box
or in the dirt. Among the Hondas I lean toward Sete, the logic being his
bad luck can't continue forever and he really doesn't have anything to
lose. But is his head so messed up that it just can't happen? Melandri
does have something to lose - 2nd in points - so I'm not sure he'll push
hard enough to win if it's a real fight. Hayden will push, as losing 3rd
is unlikely and probably doesn't matter to him (unless there's a bonus
for a top three), so I would rank him 2nd to Gibs by a nose. And I
really think Biaggi could get it done as well, something he almost did
last year. I also think we'll see some crashes, maybe even Rossi taking
someone out working through.

But it's going to be one of those six guys, too close to call, and it
should be really good...

 Mark N wrote:


What happened to Checa? He looked stronger than death there for a while,
but when the stickies came out there wasn't much improvement and I
thought Bridgestone had a good Qtire, curious, huh?

Anyway, it looks like it's Sete's race to lose, the question is how
he'll manage to do it this time. Can "Charlie" keep from chucking it?
There's plenty of places for him to do just that. The drama is that
Marco will be racing Nicky and has to stay close to him, especially if
Sete brain farts again. Will Nicky actually finish a race at Valencia
and if so, will he have any rubber left when push comes to shove on the
last few laps? And then there's the "Dottorie" how many guys can he pass
before t3,(8?) Do I see a banzai charge coming? He's the only guy out
there that this race really means nothing to, can he control his ego?
We'll see...

Given the track, the grid, what's at stake(I haven't forgot our wager
Champ) and the "parting shots" a few will be attempting to make, I kinda
doubt this one will be pretty! If it does turn into a slug fest, or a
paint swapper, no one on that track has more experience bar to bar
sideways than Hayden, the question will be if he can save some tire for
a strong finish this time around.

Conventional wisdom says, Sete, Carlos and Marco, but I see "some"
attrition happening, my take? Nicky needs to get a hole shot, put his
head down and stay out of the carnage that will probably be going on
behind him, kinda do the 'Guna thing! Doubtful that's going to happen,
but it sounds good to me!  Hayden, Edwards, and maybe even Biaggi or
Rossi and no, I wouldn't wager a dime on this one....

 T3 wrote:


Not the first time that Charlie hasn't quite delivered on the Q - he
qualified 9th and finished 4th at Motegi, he qualified 8th and finished
3rd at Sepang, he qualified 4th and finished 3rd at PI, he qualified 9th
and finished 5th in Turkey. If he maintains that form he will finish on
the podium.


My simple read is that a big part of Valencia is grunt off the corners,
and the Hondas and Ducatis have it, and the Yamahas, Kawsakis and
Suzukis don't.  So Rossi has to run it through the corners faster to
stay on pace, and that bit him in qualifying. In the race that will mean
trying to pass guys into some pretty tight spots and that could get
dicey. So unless he gets a real jump off the line he's going to have to
show real patience and judgment, and he hasn't always shown that under
these circumstances in the past.

And the race must mean something to him - he's one win away from tying
the record and breaking his own, and he has to want to win the last race
with these kids getting closer to him, something to think about over the
winter. A win by Nicky, Marco or even Sete puts them in a good frame of
mind for '06, momentum that will carry a bit until next year. It's the
psychological war that Vale specializes in.


Checa is the wildcard at the front, but if he doesn't get the jump and
run off I would guess it'll be the Gresini boys out front and Nicky, Max
and Carlos chasing; Colin, I just don't quite see him in it, at least
not for long. In that scenario Nicky should just cozy up to them and
watch the fireworks, which could be considerable, and wait until near
the end if he can hang. The wildcards would be a fast Checa and a
closing Rossi, which would mean he needs to make a move. The warmup may
show us something about who's getting the late edge. But if those odds
you posted have held, I would put money on Nicky and Carlos to win, and
maybe a bet on Max to show if that pays. If I was a bettin' man, that is...